Tuesday 19 February 2019
1) Labour up and National down in latest TVNZ poll
The facts:
The latest Colmar Brunton poll confirms that Labour is now the most popular political party in Aotearoa. An earlier TV3 Newshub poll had shown Labour jumping ahead of National in support.
In this latest poll, Labour has 45 per cent, up two percentage points The Nats are on 42 per cent, down four percent. And in terms of the minor parties, the Green party are on 6 per cent, up one percent. And New Zealand First is only on 3 per cent, down one percent.
Jacinda is the most popular politician, on 45 percent as preferred PM. And National MP Judith Collins is dead equal with her leader on 6 percent as preferred PM.
Analysis:
Looking at both the latest TVNZ poll and the earlier TV3 Newshub poll, we can safely say that the direction we are witnessing is Labour’s growing support at the expense of National’s. Also, the general direction for the minor parties is one of declining support, with the Greens being just above the 5 percent threshold to get back into parliament. And with NZ First being on only 3 percent, the party would be wiped out if an election were held today.
In regard to the minor parties, the big unanswered question is why are the minor parties are doing so poorly? New Zealand’s proportional electoral system – MMP – is meant to encourage a diversity of political parties. Yet the overwhelming majority of political support is for the two major parties – Labour and National.
Perhaps the reason for such a low level of support for minor parties is that media gives to much attention to Labour and National. Therefore, too little focus is given to the smaller parties. Or maybe the minor parties have failed to differentiate themselves clearly from Labour and National. Or perhaps the shift to a more presidential-style of political leadership, with both the two major parties, has led to the public equating governance with solely the National or Labour parties.
2) The UK Labour Party is in crisis, with the resignation of 7 of MPs.
The facts:
Seven Labour party politicians have quit over what they have seen as the party’s poor approach to Brexit, anti-Semitism, and other concerns. This is the most significant split in UK Labour since 1981 when four MPs quit to form the centrist Social Democratic Party. It is expected that the seven MPs who have just quit Labour, will form a new centrist political party.
Analysis:
A spilt in UK Labour has been on the cards for quite a while now. Centrist and right-of-centre MPs in UK Labour continue to feel deeply uneasy, if not outrightly hostile, about the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. Jeremy Corbyn is significantly to the left of most of his colleagues, and was voted in on the back of overwhelming support from members of affiliated trade unions, the general party membership, and paid-up party supporters.
So, will this right-wing spit from UK Labour hurt the party? Perhaps, but we need to take into account that the seven MPs who have left Labour represent only a small fraction of the overall number of Labour MPs who remain in the party. The seven ex-Labour politicians only make up a small percentage of Labour's 256 MPs.
For Corbyn to effectively push back against this split, he needs to show he is in firm control of his caucus, and that he has the loyal backing of his MPs. If he can achieve this, then any new centrist party is likely to sink without a trace. But that is a big “if”.
3) And finally, The UK gives the OK to Huawei
The facts:
The Chinese company Huawei has effectivity been give the go ahead to roll out a 5G network in the UK. The UK's National Cyber Security Centre has determined that any possible risk from Huawei’s involvement in UK telecoms projects can be “managed”.
The Trump administration is currently placing pressure on its five eyes partners to ban Huawei from any 5G network involvement. Ostensibly this call for a partial boycott of Huawei is on the basis of security concerns.
Analysis:
This dismissal by Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre over security concerns with Huawei will be deeply embarrassing for the NZ government. The Labour-led administration has followed American advice, and effectively banned Huawei from any 5G network involvement in NZ. With the UK now ignoring The Trump administration’s advice on Huawei, will NZ Labour now be seen as cravenly deferring to the United States on security concerns?
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This political roundup by John Moore is an extension on the five-minute breakfast political roundup that John gives on Radio One Dunedin, Monday to Thursday at 9am.
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