The Act Party has been pronounced dead many times (including by myself). But it continues to live, and will continue to live beyond 2014 if it does some obvious things. [Read more below]
There is a minor party squeeze going on at the moment – with a number of fledgling new minor/micro parties being established: Colin Craig’s Conservatives, Kim Dotcom’s Mega Party, Ben Uffindell’s Civilian Party. And then there’s the myriad of other micro parties: NZ First, the Maori and Mana parties, United Future, the Greens. So one of the biggest challenges for Act in 2014 is being noticed, talked about, and taken seriously. There will be a strong public interest and media coverage of minor parties this year, but this interest is likely to be in the new minor parties, and Act might struggle to get oxygen of publicity, which is crucial.
A necessary focus on Epsom
The party’s biggest asset is it’s current hold on the seat of Epsom, together with its arrangement with National that makes that situation possible. The party should be totally focused on retaining that asset. Without Epsom, the party is finished. So Act needs to put 100% of its resources into retaining Epsom. Winning the party vote should be a distant second priority.
So the best it can hope for is to retain its seat of Epsom, under a new candidate to replace John Banks. Yet at the moment, traders on the iPredict trading market seem to believe that Act will not hold Epsom this year – with a 74% probability of ACT Party to win NO Electorate seats in the next General Election.
Distance itself from John Banks
Act needs to move beyond John Banks as quickly as possible. This will be difficult while he remains its representative in Parliament, and also fights against fraud charges in court this year.
One option would be for John Banks to resign from Parliament and trigger a by-election. This is extremely risky – it would generate further negative publicity, it would highlight the John Banks situation, and the party might even lose the by-election.
But on the plus side, it would allow some political closure – drawing a line under the John Banks era, and allow the party to move forward. A successful Epsom by-election would also cement a new Act leader in place, and show that the party has shifted onto a new generation. iPredict suggests that there’s only a 15% chance of a By-election to be held in the Epsom electorate before next General Election.
Act is now a micro party not a minor party
As a micro party rather than an established major player, Act needs to take some risks, and think outside the box. It could easily separate its Epsom candidate and its party leader. Currently John Banks is both party leader and its Epsom representative. There is talk about the party electing a new leader who is different from its Epsom candidate. Jamie Whyte as leader and David Seymour (pictured below) as the party’s Epsom candidate.
Recruit Matthew Hooton
A major win would be to recruit Matthew Hooton to the party leadership. Hooton is currently a political commentator – best know for his politics slot of Radio NZ National’s Nine to Noon show – and is widely seen as a very adept political operator and communicator. He would be the best that Act could hope to get as leader. The bonus of recruiting Matthew Hooton is that it would prevent him from establishing a rival new rightwing party, which would ultimately spell the end for Act.
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