The Maori Party has announced the six nominees vying to replace Tariana Turia as the candidate for Te Tai Hauauru. The absence of Ken Mair from the list of nominees to replace Tariana Turia is significant, as it indicates that those at the top of the Maori Party are no longer confident that the Te Tai Hauauru electorate can be retained in 2014. Ken Mair has been deemed to be the front-runner to replace Turia – and is especially close to the incumbent MP and party leader. [Read more below]
The surprise decision of Mair – who is also the vice-president of the Maori Party – not to put himself forward as Turia’s replacement probably reflects the fact that the recent talks between the Mana and Maori parties came to nothing. There will be no electoral deals done between the two rivals, which will make it incredibly hard for the Maori Party to retain Te Tai Hauauru. Whoever replaces Turia as the Maori Party candidate will face a difficult and probably impossible contest against the Labour nominee.
Of course it’s now to be seen how well Labour does in selecting a strong candidate. If Labour selects a high profile and respected candidate then they shouldn’t have much trouble winning against any of the potential Maori Party candidates – none of whom are particularly strong.
The front-runner of the six Maori Party candidates is former Te Tai Tonga Maori Party MP, Rahui Katene. She probably has the profile and ambition to win the nomination. There will also be some demand within the Maori Party to replace Turia with another women.
But Katene is unlikely to win the seat. She will be viewed by many in the electorate as a ‘carpetbagger’ because she’s not from the area. She can, of course, indicate her whakapapa origins in the Te Tai Hauauru electorate – but a lot of Maori can do this. She will also be seen as someone who has already failed as a Maori Party MP and candidate – having lost Te Tai Tonga in 2011.
There’s also a decent chance that Christopher McKenzie could win the nomination – especially if he gets any sort of endorsement from Turia. He’s already very close to Turia, and she has been cultivating him as a future politician. He already works for Turia in Parliament as a political strategist.
The future of the Maori Party in both Te Tai Hauauru and throughout the rest of the Maori seats might well depend on relations between the Labour and Mana parties. If those two parties end up agreeing to an accommodation pact in which Mana stands aside from five of the seven seats and Labour stands aside in Hone Harawira’s seat as well as Te Ururoa Flavell’s Waiariki seat, then the Maori Party might struggle to remain in Parliament.
Flavell is likely to win Waiariki, regardless of any Labour-Mana deal, but the chances of the Maori Party retaining either Te Tai Hauauru or Tamaki-Makaurau (Pita Sharples’ seat) or low if Mana pulls out of the seat and endorses the Labour candidates.
Within Maoridom and Maori politics, name recognition and profile are incredibly important in elections. They’ve got that in terms of Flavell in Waiariki. But if the Maori Party wants to have any chance of winning any of the other six electorates – including the two others they currently hold – they need some very impressive candidates standing. The quality of the six nominees for Te Tai Hauauru suggest that the Maori Party hasn’t been able to produce the necessary personnel to ensure survival. The Maori Party has simply failed to rejuvenate, and in 2014 will pay the price for that.
