Has Len Brown lost support on the Auckland Council? Guest blogger, Simon Wilson (editor of Metro magazine), argues that the view that the Auckland council has shifted to the right is a misreading of the election result, and also of Len Brown’s own political support base. [Read more below]
As I explained in my feature on Brown in the current Metro, Len Brown is not a true lefty, but stands pretty firmly on the right of the Labour Party. What’s more, his particular skill is in building working alliances around a broadly centrist platform. Sure, more centre-left than centre-right, but centrist more than leftist.
At the same time, the rightists on the outgoing council distinguished themselves for their complete failure to cohere around a platform, a leader or anything else. Of the leading members, Dick Quax is Act and too extreme; Christine Fletcher has a battiness to her that potential supporters find remarkably alienating; Cameron Brewer is an opportunist lightweight, constantly flailing this way and that to find an issue that might stick (and absurdly allowing his name to be used as running mate with the ingenue mayoral contender John Palino); and George Wood is now almost fully in Brown’s camp.
The people most opposed to Brown have not been the right, but the ideologues on both sides, especially Quax and Sandra Coney. As an example of that, it’s completely wrong to see the election in Waitakere of Linda Cooper, replacing Coney, as a blow to Brown. He was keen to see Cooper win. She’s in the National Party, sure, but she’s centrist and he’s got good channels to work through with her. Coney’s hand-picked successor, on the other hand, was Christine Rose, who actually put out a media release saying the super city was a complete failure. That was effectively a declaration of no confidence in Brown, and he was clearly horrified at the prospect of having to work with her.
Similarly, while he has lost a close ally on the North Shore in the Labourite Ann Hartley, her replacement is Chris Darby, an independent who has been a very strong advocate for much of Brown’s programme and who is, frankly, a far more effective politician than Hartley. He brings much-needed analytical and policy strengths to back up Brown’s “visionary” style, and will be a significant force.
There is a possibility, of course, that with a new council and new Nats on board, they may try again to form a working bloc. But the reality is that National councillors who support Brown do so because they recognise how competent he is and that there are no effective alternatives. I don’t see that being likely to change.
I also think that with Brown's policy intentions now closer to realisation (the rail link perhaps starting; affordable housing a priority; the prospect of a centre-left govt in Wgtn next year), leftists on council like Mike Lee and Cathy Casey will become more reliable. Casey has shown strong signs of that, and she’ll drag Lee with her. In fact, now that the general election next year looks like being a real contest, the whole of the centre-left, including those on Auckland council, are likely to be more disciplined. I understand Lee was stung by my criticisms of him in the Metro feature, and both he and the people around him are keen to prove he is not just a crotchety old bastard.
If there really had been a shift to the right, Brent Robinson would have won in Albany and Nigel Turnbull in Albert-Eden-Roskill. Both ran very high-profile campaigns and were widely expected to succeed. Didn't happen. Noelene Raffills wouldn't have lost to Ross Clow in Whau, either. That's a National Party supporter of Brown beaten by a conservative Labour supporter of Brown. Sure, Richard Northey lost his seat, but he is a famously inept campaigner (Labour people, rolling their eyes, are the first to say it) and his opponent, Denise Krum, a local National stalwart, ran a very strong campaign.
One last factor: the local boards, which are more powerful than often thought, have swung to the left - especially in the Auckland isthmus area.
My reading of the council now is that there are 12 reasonably reliable Brown supporters:
LEN BROWN
ARTHUR ANAE
CATHY CASEY
ROSS CLOW
CHRIS DARBY
ALF FILIPAINA
PENNY HULSE
MIKE LEE
JOHN WALKER
WAYNE WALKER
JOHN WATSON
PENNY WEBSTER
There are 3 floaters amenable to Brown:
BILL CATCHPOLE
LINDA COOPER
GEORGE WOOD (Brown will find him something important to do)
And 6 councillors who will probably routinely oppose Brown:
CAMERON BREWER
CHRISTINE FLETCHER
DENISE KRUM
CALUM PENROSE
DICK QUAX
SHARON STEWART
It’s probably slightly better for Brown than last term. Krum firms up the right by one, but Clow will be a bit firmer for Brown than Raffills was, and Cooper is likely to be better for Brown than Coney was too.
It’s dangerous, in my view, to transpose Parliamentary party allegiances, held in place by caucusing and tribal behaviour, onto Auckland local body politics, where there is no caucusing and enormous disarray on the right.
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Editor's note: I have now updated this post to makes some corrections about the election of Ross Clow and non-election of Noelene Raffills! This was my mistake - I had uploaded the wrong version of the guest blog post that Simon wrote yesterday!
