liberation

NZ Politics Daily - 31 July 2012

Yesterday’s interim report from the Waitangi Tribunal won’t have surprised the Government, but it will have confirmed some tough choices ahead.  As Vernon Small points out – the issue of ‘when’ is as crucial a factor as ‘what’ the final outcome is: ‘The Government's asset sales plans, for this year at least, are in trouble with a capital T. That's T for timing, T for tribunal, T for Treaty and T for title’ – see: Tribunal statement spells trouble for asset sale plans. Small thinks a Mighty River Power sale this year is looking ‘mighty unlikely’, especially if the Maori Council heads to court. Although John Key is leaving open the option of ploughing ahead with the sales before the full report in September (see: Danya Levy and Kate Chapman’s Asset sale may occur before Waitangi Tribunal report – Key), John Armstrong thinks that is not likely. Armstrong believes ‘to do so would look churlish, petty and overbearing. It would mean more friction with the Maori Party. It would run counter to National's tactic of downplaying any sense of concern about the question of water rights frustrating its privatisation plans’ – see: Tribunal's 'taihoa' squeezes timetable. It only puts off the day of reckoning, however. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 30 July 2012

Women appear to be increasingly turned off John Key, but at least they notice him. In contrast, David Shearer seems to be part of the wallpaper for many voters. That’s according to a Fairfax/Ipsos political poll which Tracy Watkins and Kate Chapman report on in 'Polarising' PM losing gloss: ‘Women were quickest to fall out of love with Key – also worrying for National, which has capitalised on his appeal to females as a softer face for a party traditionally seen as flinty. Women were also more likely to feel anxious about their own prospects, and unhappy about the country's direction’. The crucial issues were identified as ‘core services like education and health, asset sales, the economy, Prime Minister John Key's leadership and a growing sense of "us and them"’ – see: Key battle lines drawn in early political poll. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 27 July 2012

Justice and Law are too often only marginally related. So it seems to be with John Banks and his anonymous mayoral campaign donations. It’s not a good look but National had this outcome well covered from the beginning – rapidly lowering the required ethical standards bar for ministers from ‘highest’ in 2008 to just ‘legal’ in 2012. Phil Heatley resigned as a minister in 2010 for claiming $70 worth of wine as a ministerial dinner. The Prime Minister said that Heatley had been 'untidy and careless' with his expense claims. How times change. And stay the same. As John Armstrong points out, while Key needs to distance himself from Banks there are stronger motivations at work: ‘as Helen Clark did with Winston Peters, Key needs Banks' parliamentary vote’ – see: Toothless law Act leader's saviour. The local electoral law should be changed pronto, but even doing that will be too much of an admission of guilt says Armstrong. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 26 July 2012

Sunlight is beginning to shine into the last dark corners of Parliament. Green MP Holly Walker’s bill to bring transparency and public disclosure around lobbying directed at MPs and their staff progressed in Parliament yesterday – see: Lobbying Bill Progresses. Many MPs say they have concerns over the practicalities of how the law would work, so significant changes to the proposed legislation are likely before it could be passed. It has already had an impact, however, with Speaker Lockwood Smith bowing to pressure to disclose lobbyists who have been given parliamentary swipe cards (meaning they do not have to go through security each time they visit). The list itself contains no surprises, although we haven’t been told the most interesting information – anyone who gave up their cards rather than allow their name to be made public – see Claire Trevett’s Speaker names 15 who hold the cards. The NBR has a more detailed breakdown of those they label the ‘Swiper-ati’ – see Rob Hosking’s Parliamentary swipe card list tears lid off secret society. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 25 July 2012

Going off half-cocked has already caused this Government a few problems and they seem to have done it again with the loyalty programme for asset sales. Needing to show they were front-footing the issue, John Key made the announcement of the loyalty scheme. It worked – for a day. The problem is there was actually nothing much new to say and, crucially, the basic details and costs are still unknown. John Hartevelt writes ‘It suggests a rather casual, if not rushed, attempt at a newsy "announcement" for the National Party faithful at the weekend. It all feels a bit half-baked - "we think a loyalty scheme will work, but we don't really know why and we can't tell you exactly what it will look like" – see: Details vacuum befuddles both Key and his rivals. Hartevelt thinks the lack of detail actually had Labour and the Greens struggling as well. [Read more below]

NZ Politics Daily - 24 July 2012

$112 per head may be the price we all pay for economic nationalism in the asset sales policy. Or, rather, it is the price for we all pay to placate wavering National voters concerned about foreign ownership. The actual figure for the ‘kiwi-first’ component of asset sales is unknown – $112 is based on Treasury’s $500 million upper estimate (see Adam Bennett’s $112 a head for asset loyalty), but opposition parties are claiming it could be over $1 billion. John Key calls that a ‘crazy number’ and says Parliament's finance and expenditure committee estimate of $360 million was a ‘possible number’ – see: Vernon Small’s Key denies $1b taxpayer 'sting'. Key has also suggested today that the ‘kiwi-first’ policy is likely to cost between $60 and $80 million. That’s a big variation in estimates, but a significant cost under any scenario, particularly for a government that has argued foreign investment in New Zealand should be viewed positively and flew in the face of public opinion to allow the Crafar farms to be sold offshore.  [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily: 23 July 2012

The National Party’s annual conference in the weekend will not go down in political history, being a fairly dull affair. So while today there is plenty of commentary and analysis about the conference, and the party itself, the focus will quickly move on, and the weekend’s various pronouncements will soon be forgotten. Its reflective of this that one of the most interesting things to come out of the conference is an amusing set of images up on the Herald website – see: The new faces of the National Government – especially this unfortunate image of John Key. Jane Clifton also manages to capture the mood of the conference in her analysis, National Party conference a shot of anti-depressant. Clifton says the party has plenty to be angry, anxious or depressed about, but instead it’s in a state of ‘genial serenity’. Newstalk ZB’s Felix Marwick also summed it up nicely, saying the ‘weekend effort was safe, steady, but not exactly inspiring’ (National Party's weekend conference). [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 20 July 2012

Bill Clinton famously tried to redefine some of the English language to explain away previous denials of his affair with Monica Lewinsky. Political definitions can be quite elastic and so it may be with a few key words in John Key’s assurance to the Maori Party – ‘ownership’, ‘rights and interests’ and even ‘not’. More questions are raised than settled by the joint statement, writes Audrey Young: ‘Unless the Maori Party and the Government agree on what ownership means, its concession in the joint statement is meaningless’ – see: Water ownership remains ill defined. Young also makes the point that what works as a soundbite has little bearing on the real decisions that will dictate the final outcome: ‘whatever agreements they reach, they have no control over other Maori to claim ownership rights over specific waters and have the courts uphold them’. [Read more below]

NZ Politics Daily: 19 July 2012

Promises have been made, explanations given and accepted, and everyone is still on speaking terms. Certainly the tension and sense of crisis in the National-Maori Party relationship has eased but, of course, the underlying issue is far from being resolved. The promise not to legislate over any rights won in court is the major win for Turia and Sharples – see Adam Bennett’s Maori Party leaders 'really pleased' with PM's meeting pledge. This had to be a bottom line for the relationship of a party forged in anger over Labour’s overruling legislation on the foreshore and seabed. TVNZ’s Corin Dann sees it as a positive outcome, at least in the meantime – see: Win-win for PM and Maori Party. If National’s commitment not to legislate is an absolute guarantee then it is a significant concession by National. It means that a negotiated settlement will be the only way forward if a court rules that Maori interests in water have to be formally recognised. But if the promise not to negotiate is only good for however long the coalition relationship lasts, then the practical effect is much more limited. The Maori Party would always have had have to walk away from the coalition if special legislation was used, so in this context the promise would really only be a statement of political reality – much like the PM’s comments about the Waitangi Tribunal. Normally a messy coalition break-up would be damaging to both parties, but the brutal truth is that National could easily turn it to electoral advantage, even if accused (and being guilty) of bad faith. Gordon Campbell thinks a break is inevitable, particularly as welfare reforms and asset sales fallout takes a further toll on Maori party support – see: Water issue strains political ties. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 18 July 2012

David Shearer may have just locked in his shot at becoming the next prime minister. With changes to Labour’s leadership election rules, although he will have to win a majority caucus confidence vote next year, after that the task of any leadership challenger will be much harder. The most obvious change is that of having to build support amongst members and union affiliates to win a vote. But the changes of process probably have more impact in practical terms. Under these new ‘incumbency protection’ rules, a challenge can only be initiated by two-thirds of the caucus. It’s worth noting that successful leadership coups don’t normally start with a majority, but rely on spooking enough waverers in the final run to build a majority, which is then presented to the incumbent as a fait accompli. Having to get two-thirds formally signed up before the voting even starts will make it impossible to stab your colleague in the back without having to actually eyeball them. Coups often rely on speed and stealth in the early stages, but the new required membership vote will take time and give the incumbent a huge opportunity and a public platform to fight back. The classic hurried return flight of the leader from an overseas jaunt and dreaded airport briefing from loyalists will be a thing of the past for Labour leaders. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 17 July 2012

Timing may not be everything in politics – but it’s right up there. With an admission yesterday that a legal challenge to the asset sales programme was ‘a high probability’, the PM’s cockiness over the flagship policy all going to plan is quickly disappearing. ‘We certainly hope it's not delayed’ doesn’t exude a lot of confidence – see: Duncan Garner’s John Key concedes likely asset sales delay. Comparing the chances of a delay to that of a meteorite hitting the earth today was probably a mistake as Toby Manhire points out that several thousand meteorites hit the earth every day – see: Facts bugger up John Key’s meteorite analogy. For a more statistically reliable measure, iPredict stocks say there is a 67.5% chance Mighty River Power will not be sold this year and a 27% chance it won’t be sold in 2013 either – see Hamish Rutherford’s Punters pick SOE sale delay. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 16 July 2012

Kim Dotcom’s substantial shadow may be cast over the water claim and asset sales issues. With a police decision imminent on whether to prosecute John Banks for non-disclosure of donations from the Megaupload entrepreneur the Government’s majority could be under threat, at least for a few months, if Banks is convicted or resigns. None other than ex-National and ex-Act leader Don Brash raised the scenario on TVNZ’s Q+A (read the transcript here or watch the panel discussion here), along with Greg Presland (How this Government may end) and Matt McCarten (John Key's mandate on asset sales leaking water). [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 13 July 2012

Labour is marketing itself as the party of radical economic transformation. It says it is prepared to make the real changes that National won’t. Yesterday David Parker advocated forcing the Reserve Bank to take on exporter and worker representation, and taxing property investment profits – see: Labour talks tough on economic reform. That’s the public face, but as Chris Trotter writes, the message behind closed doors to the business sector has a very different emphasis. What is not going to change under Labour, is a commitment to returning to a fiscal surplus in two years - meaning a newly elected Labour-led Government’s first budget in 2015 would have no red ink. There would have to be a dramatic turnaround in government finances over the next few years if significant new spending is going to be seen before the following election in 2018 – see Trotter’s blogpost, No Joke: Why I'm Not Laughing At Labour's Latest Speeches. [Read more below]

NZ Politics Daily - 12 July 2012

The current pressure on the Maori Party over water rights is symptomatic of wider tensions within Maori society. The party’s ‘will they or won’t they leave’ dramatics are characterised by Gordon Campbell as ‘that of a battered spouse, a pitiable creature who will swallow any indignity in return for the few crumbs of what the relationships once promised to offer’ (see Tariana Turia is facing a Katie Holmes moment) but the issues go beyond parliamentary fortunes. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 11 July 2012

The controversy over water ownership and rights is not a distraction or a minor scandal that will eventually blow over. This is because the partial privatisation policy is at the core of this Government’s programme (whether National likes it or not). The stakes are high and, given the Government’s recent woeful political management, it was, as today’s Herald editorial says, a Bad time for PM to shoot from the lip. The Government does have options in dealing with a successful Waitangi Tribunal claim – but there is real risk in all of them. Simply ignoring any unfavourable Tribunal recommendation and hoping to fight off any legal challenge might work but would be a huge gamble, and one that previous governments have lost badly on. National would also be gambling on the relationship with the Maori Party, and Audrey Young thinks John Key should be worried, especially by the Maori party’s comments yesterday: ‘We will not tolerate any suggestion that the mana of the tribunal can be undermined…. It is of utmost concern in so far as it threatens the very heart of the treaty relationship’. Tariana Turia was keeping up the pressure today, ‘refusing to confirm that the support arrangement with the minority National government is safe’ – see Audrey Young’s Turia won't confirm govt support. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 10 July 2012

An opportunistic grab for a handout or a principled stand for collective rights? John Key will feel on safe political ground in rejecting the Maori Council’s water rights claim to the Waitangi Tribunal, portraying it directly as an ‘us and them’, Maori vs the rest issue:  ‘As (chairman) Maanu Paul said last night, the reason is they want you all to pay for that. He said you need to pay for their water’ – see Danya Levy’s Key rejects Maori water claim in asset sales battle.The claimants have a very different view, saying the privatisation of the assets has forced them to take action: ‘Mr Wihapi says Maori have been quite comfortable for years with the Government and its agencies using natural resources for the benefit of the whole nation. But he says things have now become serious, because tribal property is set to be stolen’ – see Radio NZ’s Hapu blames Govt for water rights claim. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 9 July 2012

If you are going to sell out, at least get a decent price. Our politicians are far too cheap if our recent political donation scandals turn out to have any substance. The latest is Clayton Cosgrove’s promotion of a private member’s bill regarding Christchurch zoning that would advantage, among others, Independent Fisheries. The company had previously donated a few thousand to Cosgrove, but before the last election donated $17,500. TV3’s The Nation questioned the Labour MP about the issue – see TV3’s Cosgrove Clayton Cosgrove at centre of political row and read the transcript of Clayton Cosgrove’s interview on The Nation here. Cosgrove hit back, claiming TV3 was running a dirty campaign on behalf of Gerry Brownlee (see Georgina Stylianou’s Cosgrove hits back at Fisheries 'smear') and pointing out that all the donations were declared publicly as required under law. Labour is backing Cosgrove (see Adam Bennett’s Leaders back Cosgrove over donations to campaign) but, as the Keeping Stock blog points out the choice of words could have been better: ‘just remember what happened to the last Labour MP who was only guilty of "helping his constituents”’, referring to the recently paroled Phillip Field – see: Haven't we heard this before? [Read more below]

NZ Politics Daily: 29 June 2012

A condemned house with a cracked roof may well let in more light than a frost encrusted car on a Christchurch street. National did promise a brighter future for all last election, but that is definitely not the type of upgrade they want government ministers like Pita Sharples advocating. The Minister of Maori Affair’s suggestion was damaging, not so much because he is actually advocating illegal acts, but more because he has shattered the Government line on Christchurch housing of ‘there is no crisis’ – see Olivia Carville and Vernon Small’s Hardship but no housing crisis, says Key. With much of the housing quake damage going back nearly two years, the admission that some residents still face a choice between living in dangerous and condemned houses or freezing to death in the cars isn’t, as they say, a good look – see Olivia Carville’s Abandoned homes preferred to cars. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily: 28 June 2012

Public broadcasting has slowly but surely been strangled by successive Labour and National governments. The latest victim is TVNZ7, which goes off the air on Saturday at Midnight. The channel’s experience has been an informative example of how our political parties and politicians orientate towards quality media. There is an apparent Labour vs National campaign running at the moment that is more illusionary than real in terms of the debate over public broadcasting. The truth is that the blame for the demise of quality broadcasting in New Zealand can be leveled at both Labour and National – a point well made in the analysis of media studies lecturer Peter Thompson: Public Disservice Broadcasting: The shameful demise of TVNZ7. A third culprit might also be Sky TV – which is examined in an excellent feature in the Listener this week by Ruth Laugesen – see: Sky TV’s hold on the NZ market. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily: 27 June 2012

The Opposition parties are not about to give up on the anti-asset sales campaign despite the Government having squeaked through the sale legislation yesterday. And why would they? Not only do they have an issue that puts them onside with a sizable majority of voters, but the issue is proving incredibly useful in uniting Labour, the Greens and New Zealand First. And for a change, they have been disciplined about attacking the Government, not each other. This ability to work together and punish the Government’s many weaknesses lately – especially over assets sales – has made their political alliance appear more formidable than ever. But just how united and effective is this new coalition? [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily: 26 June 2012

The Government’s newly announced ‘to-do’ list is full of apple pie targets that no-one could really disagree with. The question is, does National have the recipe and is that mock cream on top? Apparently the already slimmed down public sector is expected to actually come up with the plans and prove they are achieving them with regular updates on progress – see Audrey Young’s Key sets tough 'to-do list' for public sector. [Read more below]

NZ Politics Daily: 25 June 2012

The public will get three more chances to pass judgment on the Government’s asset sales despite Parliament being about to pass the enabling legislation. The first chance will be with our wallets when shares go on the market, and according to Herald on Sunday polling, nearly 60% of us would like to buy them – see: Most of us oppose selling NZ. Given the same poll also showed even more people oppose the sales in the first place it could be seen as contradictory, but as Green co-leader Metiria Turei commented: ‘New Zealanders understand that these are shares in profitable, stable companies, but that is why they should stay in public ownership, not private ownership’. Or perhaps the poll figure simply indicates that the widespread opposition to partial privatisation just isn’t felt very strongly. [Read more below]