It wasn't that long ago that the Maori seats were a political backwater - taken for granted election after election by Labour. In 2011 there is a tense three way battle across the country. But commentary on these seats is infrequent and often ill informed, so it is worth surveying the competition.
Up in Te Tai Tokerau it seems Hone Harawira will see off Labour's Kelvin Davis for the second time in six months, although it won't be one of the landslides he enjoyed when he was the sole challenger in 2005 and 2008. Harawira is only too aware that the entire future of his Mana Party rests on the result and isn't taking anything for granted. Waihoroi Shortland for the Maori Party has obviously made a much more aggressive challenge than Solomon Tipene during the by-election but despite a much improved showing it seems he is drawing as many votes from Davis as from Harawira. The rejection of Shortland in favour of Tipene for the by-election was a huge blunder for the Maori Party. Back then he could well have ensured the permanent demise of Harawira and Mana, and so this may prove very costly for the Maori Party in the next few years. According to iPredict, Harawira has an 88% chance of winning.
In Tamaki-Makaurau it appears Pita Sharples is secure with a very handy lead over Labour's Shane Jones and Mana's Kereama Pene – see: TVNZ’s Sharples ahead in Tamaki Makarau – poll. Although it appears a no-contest the implications are large. This is Jones' best chance to win a seat. Given his leadership ambitions losing will be a big blow and there are questions as to whether he will stick around with his political future at the mercy of Labour's list selection process. But, this will almost certainly be Pita Sharples' last election. 2011 may be easy to pick now but 2014 looks wide open, especially with Willie Jackson waiting in the background. At the moment, iPredict says Sharples has an 86% chance of winning.
Tariana Turia will easily take Te Tai Hauauru but she has formally announced her retirement before the 2014 election. Again a huge personal vote will mean the Maori Party will have a real battle to retain this seat then. The Maori Party has an 86% likelihood of winning according to iPredict.
In Hauraki-Waikato Labour's Nania Mahuta looks to be safe from both Maori Party and Mana challenges, but again there is doubt about her sticking around for the next election. It’s another one to watch in 2014. But in 2011 Labour’s chances have recently risen to 89% on iPredict .
The same situation applies in Ikaroa-Rawhiti where Parekura Horomia's huge personal vote will bring it home for Labour. But there were persistent rumours of his unhappiness with Labour over the last few months and even some doubt he would stand in 2011 – see, for example Morgan Godfery’s Will Parekura Horomia retire?. He is standing but it is hard to see him still there in 2014. Labour’s likelihood of retaining the seat is rated at 86% on iPredict.
Rahui Katene was the surprise victor for the Maori Party in Te Tai Tonga in 2008, especially as she was the second choice after the sudden death of Monte Ohia. It was always going to be a hard seat to hold, especially with Katene on the defensive over the Marine and Coastal Area legislation and the fallout over Hone Harawira's split. Rino Tirikatene should regain it for Labour, assisted by a charismatic late challenge from Mana's Clinton Dearlove. Another Labour-Tirikatene dynasty in the south is far from certain, however. iPredict says that Labour has a 72% chance of taking back the seat.
Waiariki actually looks to be the key battle this year, with Morgan Godfrey calling it the hardest to pick – see: Waiariki: Electorate analysis. Mana's Annette Sykes has clearly established herself as the main challenger to Maori Party MP Te Ururoa Flavell. Her performance on the Native Affairs debate last night will reinforce this. No Waiariki polls have been released yet but, if they show Sykes within striking distance, she has the chance to collapse the Labour candidate Louis Te Kani's support and swing the anti-National vote behind her. According to iPredict, the Maori Party has a 65% chance of retaining the seat against the challenger.
As James Ihaka reports, there is a lot at stake in the Waiariki contest – see: Issues rift turns friend into foe. Given that Sharples and Turia won't be around in 2014 and that Katene is unlikely to hold her seat, the Maori Party desperately needs Flavell to hold on to provide some leadership succession. If he can't, the Maori Party face having to fight all the Maori Seats in 2014 without the huge advantage of having incumbent MPs. Another three years in coalition with National is very unlikely to make the job any easier as Colin James notes in last month’s column The Maori Party’s hard choice.
With this prospect, along with the uncertain futures of Act and Peter Dunne, National is looking a little short of reliable friends in Parliament over the next few years. A Herald poll is picking up surprising support for National amongst Maori voters but in reality National is reliant on the Maori Party to turn Maori votes into seats for a National led government – see: Mood of the Nation: National picks up Maori support.
A Sykes win in Waiariki would be a huge boost for Mana and would set them a great platform to mount strong challenges across all the Maori seats in 2014, something they were unable to do this election. Even the chance of a win will be a boost for Mana over the next few weeks - their party vote stock on iPredict shot up by nearly 1% in tandem with Sykes’ stock after last night's debate. Mana needs to show it can step up from the one-seat-wonder category of Peter Dunne and Jim Anderton. If Sykes can keep the momentum building then they could make the leap this time.
Labour have been talking up their chances of re-taking all of the Maori seats since the Maori Party-Mana split but they would have to be pretty disappointed with the prospects for 2011. They will probably gain one and hold on to two, but are likely to face 2014 with only one incumbent Maori MP. Having largely failed to take their opportunities in 2011 they will have to step it up considerably in 2014 to make any headway.
The Green Party is definitely making significant headway in the election campaign, and National aside, is likely to be the real success story of the year. I take issue with their problematic post-election coalition policy in my weekly Herald column entitled Greens play dangerous game with slippery campaign line. Elsewhere, Gordon Campbell has an excellent opinion piece on the big question of whether or not the Greens should enter a coalition with the National Party, and he points out the pros and cons – see: On some possible options for the Greens. Colin James also writes today about the ‘repositioning’ of the Greens towards the political centre – see: It's not only National that's a bit rich. Clearly there’s a developing consensus amongst political commentators that the Greens have evolved in political character and are suddenly poised to play a more central and moderate role in parliamentary politics – perhaps even from within government.[Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]
Maori seats
Morgan Godfery (Maui Street): Waiariki: Electorate analysis
Morgan Godfery (Maui Street): Native Affairs Kowhiri 11: Te Tai Hauauru Review
James Ihaka (NZH): Issues rift turns friend into foe
TVNZ: Sharples ahead in Tamaki Makarau – poll
Amelia Romanos (NZH): Poll shows strong lead for Sharples
Tracy Watkins (Stuff): Sharples out in front: poll
Jarrod Booker, Simon Collins and Yvonne Tahana (NZH): Mood of the Nation: National picks up Maori support
Mathew Grocott (Manawatu Standard): Ensure Maori led by own; Turia
Greens
Yvette McCullough (Newstalk ZB): 'We can work with National or Labour' – Greens
Bryce Edwards (NZH): Greens play dangerous game with slippery campaign line
Gordon Campbell (Scoop): On some possible options for the Greens
Colin James (ODT): It's not only National that's a bit rich
Phoebe Fletcher (Tumeke): Greens launch and National's change in tack
No Right Turn: A teal coalition?
Dominique Schwartz (ABC): Oil spill boosts NZ Greens' prospects
Lincoln Tan (NZH): Robyn Malcolm under fire for green campaign
Brian Edwards: What Robyn Malcolm and John Key have in common and why the actor might just best the politician.
John Pagani: Bad idea
Labour’s social policy
Kate Chapman and Danya Levy (Stuff): Labour's $2.6b plan to tackle child poverty
John Armstrong (NZH): Labour promises stretch far into future
Audrey Young (NZH): Six months paid parental leave under Labour
Stuff: Children focus of Labour's housing policy
Tracy Watkins (Dom Post): Labour digging deep to avoid rout
Danya Levy (Stuff): NZ 'can afford' child poverty package: Goff
Alex Tarrant (interest): It's amazing how critical Labour is of its old policy in its Working for Families extension to beneficiaries; And it supports National's tax changes too
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Not Working For Families
Elections
Gordon Campbell (Scoop): On National’s asset sales debacle
Gareth Morgan (NZH): Battle lines drawn over NZ economy
Richard Long (Dom Post): Will there be election-night fright for the Nats?
ODT: Editorial - National's to lose, but ...
Gordon Campbell (Scoop): On the first week of the campaign
Karl du Fresne (Dom Post): Oh for the days of Norm, or Rob
Katie Bradford-Crozier (Newstalk ZB): Leaders insist they're on track
John Hartevelt (Stuff): Labour's hope of minority government stifled
John Minto (Scoop): Why is Labour struggling in the campaign?
Chris Trotter (Bowalley Road): No Time For Instant Verdicts
Claire Robinson (Spinprofessor): On body language
Gordon Campbell (Wellingtonian): Facing political machine guns
Rebecca Thomson (Wellingtonian): Making every vote count
Andrea Vance (Stuff): Is Cunliffe Labour's future?
Yvonne Tahana, Jarrod Booker and Simon Collins (NZH): Mood of the Nation: Wages policy costs Labour Asian votes
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): That poll which shows Colin Craig ahead in Rodney, revealed
Dom Post: Editorial: Voters should bring end to Peters' era
No Right Turn: Labour on the environment
Alec Waugh (NZH): Why raising the super age is not fair
Peter Whitmore (NZH): State assets needed to fund National Super
Steve Kilgallon (SST): Heat builds over emissions tax on farmers
Chris Bourke (Bloomberg): New Zealand’s Key Starts Election Campaign to Win Second Term
Ask Phoebe (NZH): Clear rules limit explosion of election season signs
John Hartevelt (SST): Blood comes with guts on the hustings [Not currently online]
Stuff: Campaign diary: Tuesday, November 8
The campaign trail
Paloma Migone (Stuff): Move over Bieber, John Key a hit with tweens
Kate Chapman (Stuff): 'Mr Farty' steals Labour's thunder
Kate Chapman (Stuff): Goff and Peters work the crowd
National-Act relations
TVNZ: Key denies New Plymouth deal with Act
RNZ: ACT Party member confronts John Key
Clare Trevett (NZH): Friend vs friend - Act's man, Key clash in mall
Claire Trevett (NZH): PM hassled on lack of Act 'deal'
Vernon Small (Stuff): National tries to hold out Little
Jo Moir (Stuff): ACT, Labour up in the air over promises
Andrea Vance (Stuff): Key edging toward symbolic ACT cuppa
Rob Hosking (NBR): Key begins 'MMP shuffle' towards endorsing Act in Epsom
Anna Cross (Newstalk ZB): National needs to decide if they need ACT
Vaimoana Tapaleao and Bernard Orsman (NZH): Support for Banks thin outside wealthy pockets
Andrea Vance (Stuff): On the campaign trail with Banksy
Steve Kilgallon (SST): Trying not to get in on the Act
National’s law and order policy
Andrea Vance (Stuff): Crime policies smart move by Nats
Andrea Vance (Stuff): National focuses on law and order
Derek Cheng (NZH): Collins talks tough on detaining sex offenders
Electoral reform referendum
Kate Chapman (Stuff): Writing's on the wall for MMP referendum
Sam Thompson (Newstalk ZB): People unlikely to vote for change - political analyst
Alan Peachey
Matthew Dearnaley (NZH): Friends and foes unite to praise MP who fought for education
David Shearer (Red Alert): Allan Peachey … a man who put kids first
Other
Danya Levy (Stuff): Teacher changes make system fairer: Tolley
Kristy Martin (Daily Post): Maori reject Anglican covenant
Stuff: Ex-MP David Garrett's court appearance
Colin James (Management Magazine): Serving up big changes in the public sector
