I've been putting together NZ Politics Daily nearly every day, Monday through to Friday, since January 4, and the intention has always been to do so until the general election. The current sponsor arrangements, which ended with the election, were vital as I’m highly reliant on using a paid research assistant to help put it all together. I will now take a break and re-evaluate the project, and see what ongoing resources are available to continue. Thanks to the sponsors for generously making NZ Politics Daily possible, and thanks to all the subscribers for receiving it.
The post-election issue that is most likely to dominate political analysis over the next few months is the state of the Labour Party, its leadership, and how the party might rebuild. The biggest immediate problem seems to be a dearth of credible leadership options. As Vernon Small says, there has been ‘no clear contender emerging over the last term because of doubts over all the likely options’. He also puts forward the pros and cons of leading contenders: see: Parker heads queue for Labour leadership. Claire Trevett sets out similar points in: 'Charismatic' Cunliffe people's choice for Labour. Trevett’s report also quotes me as saying all three Davids – Cunliffe, Parker, and Shearer – are ‘sort of Phil Goff clones’, and the party would be better to think outside the box. Patrick Gower also blogs today to say that ‘Labour's problem: Its caucus cannot think outside the square’ – see: Lack of Camp Shearer shows Labour's problems. According to Gower, ‘The caucus are too focussed on the egos and the power brokers and the factions and the personal history to see through the mist’.
Today’s Dominion Post editorial, Policies with vision needed by Labour perceptively points out that Labour needs someone who is ‘more than the master of the sound bite and more than the best schemer in the Labour caucus’. Unfortunately for Labour, the Dom Post says ‘Neither of the leading contenders to replace Mr Goff – David Parker and David Cunliffe – has demonstrated that capability to the public. Nor have the others whose names have been mentioned in connection with the position – David Shearer, Andrew Little and Grant Robertson’.
The three Daves all have a sense of being versions of ‘Key-lite’ at best, and at worst, alternative versions of Phil Goff. And why would voters want to re-embrace a party lead by a poor carbon copy what they have just rejected? Gordon Campbell has written a very thoughtful blog post on the leadership problem, suggesting that Cunliffe and Parker, in particularly, are actually very similar to each other: ‘It is not as if they are polar opposites, ideologically speaking. Both tend to be regarded as being at the rightward end of the centre left political spectrum, on the economy at least’ – see: On the challenges facing Labour’s new leader.
There’s talk of ‘wild card’ options – usually people like Grant Robertson – but the problem is that such candidates are far from being ‘wild’ at all. They’re entirely predictable. There is no doubt that Robertson will eventually be at least deputy leader. But although he’s probably got more going for him than the David’s he’s not entirely in a different league. Campbell is fairly dismissive of the apparently leadership ticket of Parker and Robertson: ‘David Parker and Grant Robertson – looks more substantial as a management team, but less capable of winning votes for Labour among the wider public. Unfortunately for Labour, it isn’t bidding to run a small government agency – a task for which Parker/Robertson would be a crackerjack duo – but the entire country.’ Also, as the Dim-Post blog points out, despite having a strong reputation, Robertson ‘Has not met expectations as an opposition MP in terms of holding Ryall to account in the health portfolio’ see: Process of elimination.
Labour’s problems run deeper than a lack of leadership options. Numerous party insiders and commentators have emphasised today the extent of Labour’s problems. Shane Jones has been one of the most outspoken on the need for Labour to face up to its disastrous loss: ‘Really we've got to delve deeply into why three out of every four New Zealanders who cast a vote said we were unsound and unfit to govern. I don't think that will change until we deeply address those challenges. Until we really understand why so many people moved away from us, then we are going to be where we are for a long time to come’ (Shane Jones: Labour must reconnect with Maori.
Similarly, John Pagani says that Labour is currently fooling itself with claims that the party ran a great campaign with great policy: ‘The assertion is tone deaf, arrogant, and embarrassing’. In his column, What the election means, he makes the important point that ‘This is not a matter of packaging. Voters are not choosing National because they are being fooled, but because they see more of what they want. Only when Labour acknowledges this truth can it hope to win voters back’.
In a similar vein, another Labour insider, Phil Quin calls out MP Charles Chauvel on his assessment of Labour’s election campaign, labelling it Complacent. Delusional. Staggeringly Arrogant.
But perhaps the greatest criticism has come today from Chris Trotter, who writes that ‘The diminishing parliamentary assortment of middle-class professionals, civil servants and trade union officials that sits atop Labour’s demographic rump look less-and-less like the people it purports to represent’ – see: Rout & Ruin. The problem, according to Trotter is that the ‘ailing’ party is politically incoherent: ‘What does Labour really stand for in 2011? It most certainly does not stand for the socialist aims and objectives proclaimed by Harry Holland’s Labour Party in 1919. Indeed, two of the most important policies promoted by Phil Goff’s Labour Party in 2011: the introduction of a Capital Gains Tax; and lifting the age of eligibility for superannuation from 65 to 67; could just as easily have emerged from a moderate conservative party’.
This is an argument also pushed in today’s Dominion Post editorial, Policies with vision needed by Labour. The Dom Post says that ‘the Goff Labour Party could not make up its mind whether to be fiscally responsible or profligate in its social spending. In trying to be a bit of both it wound up pleasing few and annoying many’. More importantly, ‘Labour's problem is not its leader, nor its campaign strategy…. The problem is not even John Key's popularity. It is the absence of a coherent set of policies that give effect to its core philosophy’.
Other important or interesting items today include: Andrea Vance’s John Banks looks to Conservatives, the NBR’s Banks: 'ACT brand just about had its use-by date', Derek Cheng’s Divided Act Party needs 'to bring factions together', John Moore’s The Bored and the Disgusted, TV3’s Did opinion polls influence the election?, Audrey Young’s 10 things you didn't know about the election results, the Standard’s Demise of the Maori Party and Choosing our next PM, the David Farrar’s series of posts on the state of all the parties: Labour, ACT, Maori Party, NZ First , and The Greens. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]
Below are the internet links to all the NZ politics material from the last 24 hours that are either informative, insightful, interesting or influential. This list and the links are taken from a fuller document, NZ Politics Daily, which is emailed out, Monday to Friday, to various researchers, academics, journalists, MPs and so forth. The document is purely for research purposes only, and if you would like to be on the subscription list, please email: [email protected]
Labour leadership and rebuilding
Trevor Mallard (Red Alert): Labour leadership
Vernon Small (Stuff): Parker heads queue for Labour leadership
TV3: Parker in lead to replace Goff
TVNZ: The three Davids battle for Labour's top job
Patrick Gower (TV3): Lack of Camp Shearer shows Labour's problems
Claire Trevett and Herald Online staff: 'Charismatic' Cunliffe people's choice for Labour
Claire Trevett (NZH): Shane Jones: Labour must reconnect with Maori
Barry Soper and Newstalk ZB staff: Goff standing down within weeks
Felix Marwick, Barry Soper and Newstalk ZB staff: Labour MPs quiet on leadership
Kate Chapman (Stuff): Key: I won't make Labour's mistake
Gordon Campbell (Scoop): On the challenges facing Labour’s new leader
Chris Trotter (Press): Rout & Ruin
Dom Post: Editorial - Policies with vision needed by Labour
Ian Llewellyn (electionresults): Even Battle Between The Davids
Phil Quin (New Tasman): The “experience” argument against Shearer? Really?
John Pagani: Making a mockery of ‘inexperience’
Robert Winter (Idle Thoughts): What to do when there is no Lange or Clark
Imperator Fish: What’s The Hurry?
Dim Post: Or, to put it another way
Dim Post: Process of elimination
The Standard: Choosing our next PM
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Labour
John Pagani (Stuff): What the election means
Phil Quin (New Tasman): Complacent. Delusional. Staggeringly Arrogant.
Taranaki Daily News: Editorial – Paying the cost of a lack of Labour
John Banks and Act
Andrea Vance (Stuff): John Banks looks to Conservatives
NBR: Banks: 'ACT brand just about had its use-by date'
Dim Post: Just like Dagny would do
No Right Turn: Eating ACT from the inside
Robert Winter (Idle Thoughts): Biting the hand that fed..: Banks and the Conservative Party
Nicola Grigg (Newstalk ZB): Conservatives doubtful of joining ACT
Derek Cheng (NZH): Divided Act Party needs 'to bring factions together'
Audrey Young (NZH): Banks hints at portfolio chances
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): ACT
Maori Party and asset sales
Tracy Watkins and Kate Chapman (Stuff): Asset sales no bar to Maori Party deal
Patrick Gower (TV3): Tariana Turia talks asset sales – full interview
RNZ: Asset sales could be excluded from deal, says Maori Party
Audrey Young and Hayden Donnell (NZH): Post-election deals discussed
John Hartevelt (Stuff): Iwi keen on slice of asset-sale action
Jenny Keown (Stuff): Tainui could head queue for Mighty River shares
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Maori Party
Standard: Demise of the Maori Party
Low voter turnout
RNZ: Low voter turnout cited as factor in National's success
The Jackal: Low voter turnout
Lincoln Tan (NZH): Many non-voters likely migrants, says analyst
Ally Mullord (TV3): Privacy concerns a factor in low voter turnout
John Moore (liberation): The Bored and the Disgusted'o
MMP referendum
APNZ: One part referendum vote still counts
Matthew Backhouse (NZH): MMP critics rue lost chance
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): The threshold
No Right Turn: Democracy 101
No Right Turn: The Gallagher Index
Polling
TV3: Did opinion polls influence the election?
g.blog: Time for a moratorium on opinion polls
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): How the pollsters did
Martyn Bradbury (Tumeke): The polls v the poll: performance credibility
Maori vote
Morgan Godfery (Maui Street): Parliament according to the Maori vote
Amelia Romanos (NZH): Mixed feelings about score of 20,000 votes
NZ First
Paloma Migone (Stuff): Winston Peters: an unforgettable brand
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): NZ First
Greens
David Farrar (Kiiwiblog): The Greens
RNZ: Greens influence greater than Maori Party – Turei
John Hartevelt (Stuff): Greens keep mum on deal as caucus gathers
Adam Bennett (NZH): Greens' first caucus welcomes new faces
Gary Taylor (NZH): National-Green team can make progress
Election
Danya Levy (Stuff): ACT stance at Labour's expense
Audrey Young (NZH): 10 things you didn't know about the election results
RNZ: Result showed groundswell of support, say Conservatives
Morgan Godfery (Maui Street): Native Affairs post-election special
Imperator Fish: So What Have We Learned Since Saturday?
Emma Hart (Public Address): What if We Held an Election and Nobody Came?
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Apology to Clare Curran
Other
Ian Llewellyn (electionresults): The Push For Ministerial Places
Hayden Donnell (NZH): Colourful crop of new MPs heading for Parliament
Dom Post: Today in politics: Tuesday
Nicola Grigg, Natasha Burling and Newstalk ZB staff: Judge reserves decision over Occupy protest
