NZ Politics Daily - 24 November (liberation)

Today it’s being reported that ‘Almost half of New Zealand voters believe no political party truly represents their views’. What’s more, the same survey research shows that ‘more than 40 per cent of voters are driven to choose a party because they like the leader’ – see: Andrea Vance and Kate Newton’s Leader's popularity may sway party choice. Such reports are in line with academic research that shows throughout the western world there is a growing disjunction between the ideology of voters and parties.

So how can voters find a party to vote for? There are a number of very interesting interactive websites which offer information about the political ideologies and policies of the various parties. One of the most impressive is the international Political Compass website, which not only attempts to give a sophisticated multi-dimensional map of where political parties are ideologically, but also allows you to locate yourself on that map. It’s not just a traditional left-right economic spectrum – but one that incorporates the libertarian-authoritarian social dimension. You can take the test here and view where New Zealand parties currently sit. A measurement system such as this one will always have some inaccuracies, and I would argue that in this case the National Party is positioned too far to the right and the Greens too far to the left. The Mana Party is also deemed to be surprisingly authoritarian (probably due to a propensity towards banning and regulating activities such as smoking, gambling, and drinking). But overall the Political Compass does a good job of plotting our political landscape and providing a useful analytical device for understanding the nature of the various parties.

Other ‘guides to voting’ have been launched recently – check out the On the Fence website - which is also reported on here and Vote Note. An environmental-based site, Elect Who? is apparently ‘your guide to voting for a zero carbon future’. For other media items that seek to help voters navigate all of the policy options – see, Ally Mullord’s Undecided and confused? Election policies explained and the policy summaries on most major news websites – such as this one: Election policies: How the parties stack up. And for the electoral system referendum, there is a very useful interactive online tool here.

Also in terms of the referendum, yesterday the Dominion Post came out in support of MMP (Fine-tuning MMP a voting solution) and today it’s the Herald’s turn – see: Flawed, but MMP is pick of the bunch.

With election day drawing closer, and the campaign nearly over, some focus is turning to the role that the mainstream media and new social media are playing. Some useful research and opinion can be found in these items: Media coverage of party policy sidelined by tea tape – study, Chris Philpott’s A quick review of election coverage, and Chris Whitworth’s From smiling to silent assassin: National's media stonewall. But it’s the interplay between politics, media and the state that is particularly interesting, and the following items discuss the contentious regulation of these activities: John Drinnan’s Policing election day media ban 'farcical', the Southland Times’ editorial, Hush as we go to vote, Eric Crampton’s Election gag and Stuff’s Weather off the radar on Saturday.

With one day to go, some are saying that the election result is a foregone conclusion – but the party leaders haven’t got the memo. They know that -despite the polls – there are so many variables in play that mean those last few swinging votes may be crucial.

Shifting soft National support to Labour has to be Phil Goff’s primary focus and, after the teapot tapes diversion (which didn’t directly help Labour at all) Labour is relentlessly hammering the asset sales issue. National, having run out of any new policy to promote, are finding themselves having to respond to questions about limiting foreign ownership seemingly making policy about ownership caps on the hoof – see Adam Bennett’s Key promises curbs as state sell off looms. As Duncan Garner reports (Maori Party hold asset sale balance of power, the Greens are also taking shots at National over the policy – a sure sign there are votes to be won over in the centre. In the last few days the messages are slogans and appeals to gut instinct. Gordon Campbell has an interesting article (On why even financial analysts are jumping ship on the asset sales plan) that asks the question that really matters: Do the numbers add up? He quotes financial analyst Brent Sheather’s NZ Herald piece from a few weeks ago to argue that undoubtedly the government will get a poor price for the assets.

The asset sales issue has also highlighted the fundamental difficulties the Maori Party faces trying to preserve their voting base while being a junior coalition partner. Their position is that they oppose the sales, but if they go ahead then they want special status for iwi buyers. This is not really a cut-through policy position – especially when your current coalition partner is very clear they will be sold and there will be no special deals.

Tariana Turia says they have learnt from their first three years in government and will be wanting more policy concessions in the next term – see: Audrey Young’s Turia: We are in a better position this time around. It seems they are positioning themselves for another term with National, certainly being at pains not to take any position that would prevent that. However, Kate Chapman’s analysis (Maori Party appears to be quiet achiever) may be cold comfort on election night. MMP politics is littered with the corpses of junior coalition ‘quiet achievers’. Winston Peters – who is anything and everything except quiet – may be the exception that proves the rule. And Hone Harawira, having freed himself from the relationship with National, is able to project a far more decisive and forceful image for Mana – which can be seen in Yvonne Tahana’s Harawira calls for war on poverty [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

Below are the internet links to all the NZ politics material from the last 24 hours that are either informative, insightful, interesting or influential. This list and the links are taken from a fuller document, NZ Politics Daily, which is emailed out, Monday to Friday, to various researchers, academics, journalists, MPs and so forth. The document is purely for research purposes only, and if you would like to be on the subscription list, please email: [email protected]

Election campaign

Andrea Vance and Kate Newton (Stuff): Leader's popularity may sway party choice

John Armstrong (NZH): Don't look for the 'real issues' in campaign's dying days

David Beatson (Pundit): Clever politics leave voters in a vacuum

Claire Trevett (NZH): Stubbornly wide gap in polls adds uncertainty

Audrey Young (NZH): Key predicts close result, urges voters to resist complacency

Peter Wilson (NZN): Week four: the state of the parties

Barry Soper (Newstalk ZB): Political Report for November 24

Garth George (NZH): The money... and the real issues

Lloyd Burr (TV3): Clone wars in Wellington Central

NZH: Dunne treads a well-worn track

Adam Bennett (NZH): Super age referendum part of any deal – Brash