NZ Politics Daily - 21 October 2011 (liberation)

After much hype and expectation, the final of the RWC is upon us. The question of it’s political impact is once again being asked. Two Victoria University of Wellington academics have a lot to say about this – see: Peter A Thompson and Marc Wilson’s Winning the World Cup – does it make a difference? and the TVNZ items Expert believes RWC result could impact election and The Cup and the media (3:51). Audrey Young has also written a useful backgrounder here: Rugby World Cup unlikely to affect election.

There should be no doubt that the result of Sunday night’s game will have some impact on the election campaign. Obviously people don’t consciously make deliberate voting decisions on the basis of sporting wins or losses, but those sporting results do have an influence on the emotional mood of the electoral, which definitely then impacts on voting behaviour to some degree. And a win will definitely produce an element of elation in the national mood/psyche over the next few months. This has to be good for the incumbents. Of course those that have already firmly decided to vote for parties other than National are not likely to change their vote as a result of the win. But those undecided voters will be slightly more easily won over by the National Government’s attempts to convince the electorate things are getting better, and that therefore no change is needed.

Also, the tournament has been a big success – apart from the opening night – and so this has also left the country slightly buoyant. We’ve had a national party so-to-speak, and people have enjoyed the festivities and games and this probably makes people conducive to retaining the status quo in government.

However, the impact of a win could be diluted by other factors. The Rena oil spill still has a long way to go before its looking like it can be safely resolved. And similarly, the Treasury’s PREFU statement comes out this week, which is basically the Treasury opening the Government’s books prior to the election to show just how good or bad things are. So if the PREFU and the Rena Spill are also pointing towards negative futures, then the World Cup win will be slightly overshadowed – or at least the gloss is less shiny, and that opens up Labour’s chances of making an impact with their argument that the Government hasn’t improved people’s lives in New Zealand.

And a loss on Sunday would definitely produce an element of depression in the national mood, and this has to be bad for the incumbents. Again, those that have already firmly decided to vote for National are not likely to change their vote as a result of the loss. But those undecided voters – or even the many ‘soft National supporters’ will be slightly less easily won over by the National Government’s attempts to convince the electorate things are getting better, and that therefore no change is needed. And when people are in negative moods are they are more receptive to negative election advertising, and that will advantage the Labour Party, which is campaigning on the basis of the need to change the government. And, of course, the impact of the loss could be compounded by those other factors such as Rena and the PREFU. If the All Blacks lose, Labour might also be tempted to make something of the fact that the underdog has won, and they’ll want to draw the parallel with the fact that so many commentators and voters have written off Labour as being destined to lose the election. But they’ll have to be very careful in drawing such parallels, which in the current sensitive emotional mood could go down very well, and could be seen as anti-patriotic.

For another political take on the Rugby World Cup, see Simon Collins’ article, Deep divisions over $1000 for a Rugby World Cup game as poverty grows.

The big political story of today is about the Act Party’s precarious existence due to its reliance on its so-called dirty deal with National over Epsom. Today’s NBR carries some important poll results and analysis in the following stories: Hide wins similar support as Banks. Key will decide ACT's Parliamentary future, Key too fuzzy on Epsom, and Voters punish ACT. Act’s situation is also dealt with very well by TV3’s Lloyd Burr – see Key will not vote for Banks in Epsom and Patrick Gower: Key and ACT's Epsom deal is just so filthy. In the ODT, Dene Mackenzie also asks: Brash staging Act finale?.

Other important items today include: John Hartevelt’s A campaign subplot, Danya Levy’s Labour promises to protect Kiwi farms, John Pagani’s National's empty words, David Farrar’s Work and wages policy is no surprise, Derek Cheng’s Labour and unions sing same tune on contracts, Bill Rosenberg’s New Zealanders get low wages, Chris Trotter’s Resistance is not futile, and Ben Heather’s Red-zone challenge proposal scrapped. There’s also some very interesting items about the issue of ‘gay marriage’ coming onto the election agenda – see: Pro-gay marriage protest hits Parliament, Calls for gay marriage to be on election agenda and Deborah Russell’s Gay, straight, bi - marriage should be for all. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

Below are the internet links to all the NZ politics material from the last 24 hours that are either informative, insightful, interesting or influential. This list and the links are taken from a fuller document, NZ Politics Daily, which is emailed out, Monday to Friday, to various researchers, academics, journalists, MPs and so forth. The document is purely for research purposes only, and if you would like to be on the subscription list, please email: [email protected]

Act Party and Epsom

Tim Grafton (NBR): Hide wins similar support as Banks. Key will decide ACT's Parliamentary future

Rob Hosking (NBR): Key too fuzzy on Epsom

Rob Hosking (NBR): Voters punish ACT

Lloyd Burr (TV3): Key will not vote for Banks in Epsom

Patrick Gower (TV3): Key and ACT's Epsom deal is just so filthy

Andrea Vance (Stuff): John Banks trails in Epsom

Andrea Vance (Stuff): ACT can't bank on Key's support

Ian Llewellyn (electionresults): Key Is The Key To ACT’s Future

Dene Mackenzie (ODT): Brash staging Act finale?

RNZ: ACT's chances in Epsom appear slim

Whaleoil: Labour’s smear tactics in Epsom