NZ Politics Daily: 12 October (liberation)

Could this be Key’s Katrina? Back in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina struck, US President George W Bush faced a major backlash over his mismanagement of the crisis. Could the same happen to John Key now? So far, Key and National have come out of major disasters looking fairly good, but that doesn’t mean the opposite won’t happen now. Certainly the political commentary isn’t looking good for the Government. For instance, this is what Tim Watkin says: ‘This week, National has conspired to struggle with the Rena spill. Complacency? Bad advice? A lack of preparedness? It's not clear yet, but the impression left is of a flat-footed government’ – see: Luck has an unlady like way of running out - just ask John Key. The newspaper editorials and political columnists are also very negative – check out the ODT’s editorial, Oil spills and careless words, the Southland Times editorial, Oil spill masterplan less than masterful, Andrea Vance’s Where's the master of disaster?, Vernon Small’s Teflon Key facing toxic backlash, and Brian Rudman’s Lessons of Pike River apply to oil.

Other partisan voices are also suddenly aggressively making strong political points about the disaster – see, for example John Pagani’s Who is to blame for Rena? and Claire Browning’s The turning tide for fossil fools. Similarly TVNZ is reporting: Greens claim Joyce 'lied' about Rena and TV3 has a story, Goff questions Rena response.

So this really could be the game changer that Labour has been hoping they could manufacture. In earlier opportunities to make electoral progress out of National’s misfortunes or mistakes, Labour has ended up shooting itself in the foot at the same time, and has squandered the opportunity. Goff will be determined that this doesn’t happen now. He has been given the perfect electoral present and will be clamping down on ill-disciplined outbursts from his colleagues, and from other allies, such as in the blogosphere. It’s notable therefore that Labour’s friends at The Standard blog – who normally dive in boots and all at any opportunity to criticize or denigrate the Prime Minister and Government – have been conspicuously silent about Rena. Likewise, suddenly Red Alert has gone relatively quiet. It’s as if Clare Curran and Trevor Mallard have had access to their parliamentary service computers blocked by Phil Goff. So we can expect that Labour will deal with this crisis and opportunity very carefully.

For better or worse, the Greens are showing less restraint. The allegations and blog posts are flying thick and fast out of the Green Party parliamentary offices. Any glee that the Greens might feel about this electorally-advantageous catastrophe falling into the party’s lap a few weeks out from an election is being suppressed. The timing is superb for the party, and many are joking along the lines that ‘if you didn't know better you'd think the Greens ran the Rena aground on purpose’. And there should be no doubt that this will benefit the Greens – simply because an environmental disaster will lend further credibility to the main party of environmentalism. The Greens will win votes from across the political spectrum, and especially from undecided and ‘apathetic’ voters who will be easily won over the simple message of ‘voting for the planet’.

iPredict tip: Buy stocks in Labour Party vote, Green Party vote, a Labour PM after election, and a Green Minister after the election, and short-sell stocks in John Key as next PM, the National Party vote, and NZ First vote.

The saga over Martyn ‘Bomber’ Bradbury being removed from Radio New Zealand is still being discussed, with some of the most interesting and thoughtful points being made today – see: Brian Edwards’ Bomber Bradbury – a gutless reaction by Radio New Zealand that smacks of political hypersensitivity, Imperator Fish’s On The Bradbury Ban, Chris Trotter’s Defusing The Bomber, and David Farrar’s Diversity at Radio NZ.

Other items of special importance, insight, interest, or influence today include: the Dom Post’s Editorial - Time to buckle down, Mr Key, Mr Key, Brian Fallow’s Quakes take only half of $18b deficit, Kim Savage and Felix Marwick’s Public sector cuts possible to reduce deficit, Hamish Rutherford‘s Quake costs may force surplus rethink, TV3’s Defence Minister talks Afghan torture - Full interview, Patrick Gower’s Govt can’t rule out SAS link in Afghan prisoner torture, Derek Cheng’s SAS prisoners may have been tortured: Govt, Claire Trevett’s 'Be cautious' warning over PM's show, and John Armstrong’s A National-Green alliance? Unlikely, but not impossible. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

Below are the internet links to all the NZ politics material from the last 24 hours that are either informative, insightful, interesting or influential. This list and the links are taken from a fuller document, NZ Politics Daily, which is emailed out, Monday to Friday, to various researchers, academics, journalists, MPs and so forth. The document is purely for research purposes only, and if you would like to be on the subscription list, please email: bryce.edwards@otago.ac.nz

Rena oil spill