Could this be Key’s Katrina? Back in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina struck, US President George W Bush faced a major backlash over his mismanagement of the crisis. Could the same happen to John Key now? So far, Key and National have come out of major disasters looking fairly good, but that doesn’t mean the opposite won’t happen now. Certainly the political commentary isn’t looking good for the Government. For instance, this is what Tim Watkin says: ‘This week, National has conspired to struggle with the Rena spill. Complacency? Bad advice? A lack of preparedness? It's not clear yet, but the impression left is of a flat-footed government’ – see: Luck has an unlady like way of running out - just ask John Key. The newspaper editorials and political columnists are also very negative – check out the ODT’s editorial, Oil spills and careless words, the Southland Times editorial, Oil spill masterplan less than masterful, Andrea Vance’s Where's the master of disaster?, Vernon Small’s Teflon Key facing toxic backlash, and Brian Rudman’s Lessons of Pike River apply to oil.
Other partisan voices are also suddenly aggressively making strong political points about the disaster – see, for example John Pagani’s Who is to blame for Rena? and Claire Browning’s The turning tide for fossil fools. Similarly TVNZ is reporting: Greens claim Joyce 'lied' about Rena and TV3 has a story, Goff questions Rena response.
So this really could be the game changer that Labour has been hoping they could manufacture. In earlier opportunities to make electoral progress out of National’s misfortunes or mistakes, Labour has ended up shooting itself in the foot at the same time, and has squandered the opportunity. Goff will be determined that this doesn’t happen now. He has been given the perfect electoral present and will be clamping down on ill-disciplined outbursts from his colleagues, and from other allies, such as in the blogosphere. It’s notable therefore that Labour’s friends at The Standard blog – who normally dive in boots and all at any opportunity to criticize or denigrate the Prime Minister and Government – have been conspicuously silent about Rena. Likewise, suddenly Red Alert has gone relatively quiet. It’s as if Clare Curran and Trevor Mallard have had access to their parliamentary service computers blocked by Phil Goff. So we can expect that Labour will deal with this crisis and opportunity very carefully.
For better or worse, the Greens are showing less restraint. The allegations and blog posts are flying thick and fast out of the Green Party parliamentary offices. Any glee that the Greens might feel about this electorally-advantageous catastrophe falling into the party’s lap a few weeks out from an election is being suppressed. The timing is superb for the party, and many are joking along the lines that ‘if you didn't know better you'd think the Greens ran the Rena aground on purpose’. And there should be no doubt that this will benefit the Greens – simply because an environmental disaster will lend further credibility to the main party of environmentalism. The Greens will win votes from across the political spectrum, and especially from undecided and ‘apathetic’ voters who will be easily won over the simple message of ‘voting for the planet’.
iPredict tip: Buy stocks in Labour Party vote, Green Party vote, a Labour PM after election, and a Green Minister after the election, and short-sell stocks in John Key as next PM, the National Party vote, and NZ First vote.
The saga over Martyn ‘Bomber’ Bradbury being removed from Radio New Zealand is still being discussed, with some of the most interesting and thoughtful points being made today – see: Brian Edwards’ Bomber Bradbury – a gutless reaction by Radio New Zealand that smacks of political hypersensitivity, Imperator Fish’s On The Bradbury Ban, Chris Trotter’s Defusing The Bomber, and David Farrar’s Diversity at Radio NZ.
Other items of special importance, insight, interest, or influence today include: the Dom Post’s Editorial - Time to buckle down, Mr Key, Mr Key, Brian Fallow’s Quakes take only half of $18b deficit, Kim Savage and Felix Marwick’s Public sector cuts possible to reduce deficit, Hamish Rutherford‘s Quake costs may force surplus rethink, TV3’s Defence Minister talks Afghan torture - Full interview, Patrick Gower’s Govt can’t rule out SAS link in Afghan prisoner torture, Derek Cheng’s SAS prisoners may have been tortured: Govt, Claire Trevett’s 'Be cautious' warning over PM's show, and John Armstrong’s A National-Green alliance? Unlikely, but not impossible. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]
ODT: Editorial - Oil spills and careless words
Southland Times: Editorial - Oil spill masterplan less than masterful
Andrea Vance (Stuff): Where's the master of disaster?
Vernon Small (Dom Post): Teflon Key facing toxic backlash
Tim Watkin (Pundit): Luck has an unlady like way of running out - just ask John Key
Denis Welch (Opposable thumb): Into their own hands
Brian Rudman (NZH): Lessons of Pike River apply to oil
John Pagani (Stuff): Who is to blame for Rena?
Claire Browning (Pundit): The turning tide for fossil fools
Jamie Morton and Amelia Wade (NZH): Rena oil spill: ship's captain arrested
Paloma Migone, Marty Sharpe, Angela Cuming, Kiran Chug (Stuff): Captain of Rena charged, containers fall into sea
Kevin Norquay (Stuff): Rena's captain had good record, company says
Clio Francis (Dom Post): Heavy penalties for ship pollution
TVNZ: Greens claim Joyce 'lied' about Rena
TV3: Goff questions Rena response
Elizabeth Binning (NZH): Dispersant to break up Rena oil 'harms sea life'
Amelia Wade (NZH): Big teams mobilise to clear toxic Rena oil
RNZ: Oil threat worsens, and 70 containers overboard
Matthew Theunissen (NZH): Rena crew would have been terrified, union says
Dom Post: Flag-of-convenience shipping criticized
Socialist Aotearoa: The maritime free market has failed
Paloma Migone (Stuff): Fishermen fear Rena disaster will ruin business
Paloma Migone (Stuff): Locals should join clean-up: Goff
RNZ: Fears pollution may spread to Coromandel
Hayden Donnell (NZH): Rena oil spill: 'our paradise is gone'
Jenny Keown (Stuff): Port offers help in Rena salvage
No Right Turn: Bad news from Tauranga
Morgan Godfery (Maui Street): The Rena Disaster
Nevil Gibson (NBR): Rena aground: Leave it to Hollywood
PM’s credit downgrade comments
Dom Post: Editorial - Time to buckle down, Mr Key
Audrey Young (NZH): Who wrote the mystery economy note?
Fran O’Sullivan (NZH): No hiding from task of balancing books
Rob Carr (Political Dumpground): John Key Misleads Twitter
Robert Winter (Idle Thoughts): Mr Key, Standard and Poor's and the Issue of Credibility
Economy and EQC increase
Brian Fallow (NZH): Quakes take only half of $18b deficit
Kim Savage and Felix Marwick (Newstalk ZB): Public sector cuts possible to reduce deficit
John Hartevelt (Dom Post): EQC levy rise adds to home costs
Duncan Garner (TV3): Govt warns of further cuts as quake costs bite
RNZ: Expect further cuts to public spending – English
Vernon Small and Hamish Rutherford (Stuff): EQC levy to triple as Govt posts $18.4b deficit
John Hartevelt (Stuff): Climbing EQC quake costs blow hole in forecasts
Hamish Rutherford (Stuff): Quake costs may force surplus rethink
TVNZ: EQC levies to triple after Canterbury earthquakes
NBR: EQC levy hike needed 'to realistically reflect costs' – English
William Mace (Stuff): Easier class actions urged
Roeland van den Bergh (Stuff): IRD clamps down on offshore funds
SAS in Afghanistan
TV3: Defence Minister talks Afghan torture - Full interview
Patrick Gower (TV3): Govt can’t rule out SAS link in Afghan prisoner torture
Derek Cheng (NZH): SAS prisoners may have been tortured: Govt
RNZ: Afghans SAS captures not tortured – Mapp
NZN: No review of SAS role, government says
Newstalk ZB: Delay to report on Afghanistan detainees
No Right Turn: What we're fighting for in Afghanistan
Election
John Armstrong (NZH): A National-Green alliance? Unlikely, but not impossible
Claire Trevett (NZH): 'Be cautious' warning over PM's show
NBR: Sharp drop in National party support - poll
NZH: Editorial - Epsom voters taking away Act's lifeline
Barry Soper (Newstalk ZB): Political Report: October 12
TV3: Maori Party faces tough election test
Morgan Godfery (Maui Street): Maori electorates, Kereama Pene and Asset sales
Deidre Mussen (Press): Goff goes back to West Coast
Election – Party profiles
TV3: Party profile: Maori Party
TV3: Party profile: Mana
TV3: Party profile: Green Party
TV3: Party profile: ACT
TV3: Party profile: United Future
TV3: Party profile: New Zealand First
Election – Candidate profiles
TV3: Candidate profile: Shane Jones
TV3: Candidate profile: Clayton Cosgrove
TV3: Candidate profile: Annette King
Simon Power goes to Westpac
NZH/APNZ: Power to head Westpac's exclusive bank for wealthy clients
NZH: Simon Power going to Westpac Bank
RNZ: Westpac sensitive to potential Power conflict
Kim Savage (Newstalk ZB): Power will fit in at Westpac – Kerr
Media ban
Brian Edwards: Bomber Bradbury – a gutless reaction by Radio New Zealand that smacks of political hypersensitivity.
Imperator Fish: On The Bradbury Ban
Chris Trotter (Bowalley Road): Defusing The Bomber
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Diversity at Radio NZ
Other
Stuff: Urgent action needed on buildings in wake of quakes
Tamlyn Stewart (Stuff): Insurers blamed for builders' woe
NZN: Finsec and NDU join forces
RNZ: Election in way of Treaty talks - Waikato-Tainui says
Kate Chapman (Stuff): Labour: Knock off school early for sport
Derek Cheng (NZH): Labour plans mandatory school sport
Andrea Vance (Stuff): Labour would end sole-charge police stations
RNZ: Fonterra pay figures issued
Dom Post: Today In Politics: Wednesday