NZ Politics Daily - 26 April (liberation)

He has made them an offer they can’t refuse – but will they anyway? Don Brash’s extraordinary external leadership bid has everyone scrambling to figure the odds of 1) a successful coup, and 2) the impact on Act’s polling, and 3) the impact on the election in general. Tracy Watkins (Thick skin Hide’s undoing) and John Armstrong (Time for Hide to walk the plank) clearly believe that Hide should sacrifice himself, but there seems to be a consensus that Hide is unlikely to go quietly. In another article Watkins reports that it may have been Hide’s own manoeuvring that set off this hostile take-over (Hide offered me Epsom, says Don Brash) and profiles Brash’s wealthy and powerful allies. There is debate about how much inside support Brash has in Act (aside from Heather Roy and Roger Douglas) but it seems his main weapon is a thoroughly ruthless logic – Let me lead or I’ll bleed you dry, Brash tells Act (Derek Cheng).

It seems clear that this has taken many by surprise, and reactions – on the right in particular – vary widely. Whaleoil is scathing of Bill English’s negative response while John Key was overseas (What are National thinking?) and points out how John Key immediately took a far more pragmatic line on his return (John Key on Brash). David Farrar, on the other hand, has taken some time and effort to spell out all the negatives for Act, Don Brash and the centre-right (Hide v Brash) and Don’s decision). The main fear seems to be that Brash will provide a much juicier target than Hide for the centre–left while bleeding votes from National. On the other hand, apart from Farrar’s faint reassurances, the consensus is that Act is a dead party walking.

The nature of the leadership coup has also attracted much comment. The technical difficulties of a non-member, non-MP to seize the leadership in a parliamentary party are laid out by Derek Cheng in Brash chases leadership of party he hasn’t joined), but it’s the sidelining of Act’s membership in the process that has outraged some (Kiwiblog: Are there any ACT members involved in the Brash bid?). Stephen Franks (Democratic parties, the role of outsiders, and Don Brash) admits that such a move would have been unthinkable a few years ago but thinks the heavy price parties pay in the media for any dissent means we may see more fluidity of membership between parties under MMP. Don Brash and Act, however, do have a history of somewhat clumsy and messy coups, which Geoffrey Miller looks at in a guest blog post on liberation (Don Brash – a new hope or an old headache for the ACT Party?). And although it seems extraordinary that a serious leadership coup is being constructed from outside of the actual party by a ex-leader of a rival party, as I pointed out on RNZ Morning Report (audio) there are actually precedents for this with Act (Richard Prebble made a takeover from outside in 1996; John Banks had talks about taking over the leadership in 2004).

The SAS continues to attract attention with a major investigative piece by Jon Stevenson in Metro (not online) claiming that prisoners of our SAS have been regularly handed over to Afghani security forces known to torture and abuse their captives. Labour remains silent leaving it to the Greens (Greens want inquiry into SAS prisoner claims) to counter Wayne Mapp’s denials. Kiwipolitico (Tactical Utu in a Strategic Quagmire) has a good piece arguing that the SAS’s recent activity points to a worsening situation for the whole New Zealand mission in Afghanistan.

In other news John Hartevelt covers the growing uncertainty in the public sector (Shallow talent pool poses challenges and Public sector in for upheaval – SSC boss). The gloves are about to come off between the Maori Party and Hone Harawira’s new Mana Party to be launched this weekend according to Duncan Garner (Harawira close to ending truce with Maori Party). Claire Trevett lays out the Maori Party’s likely strategy to deal with the challenge (Twists and turns of the life after Hone) which Morgan Godfery (Maui Street: The Herald on Maori politics) praises but rebuts point by point and John Armstrong doubts that Winston Peters can achieve a parliamentary comeback this year as other parties have moved in on his old hot-button issues (Once the rebel – now in need of a cause). [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

Below are the internet links to all the NZ politics material from the last 24 hours that are either informative, insightful, interesting or influential. This list and the links are taken from a fuller document, NZ Politics Daily, which is emailed out, Monday to Friday, to various researchers, academics, journalists, MPs and so forth. The document is purely for research purposes only, and if you would like to be on the subscription list, please email: [email protected]

Act Party leadership struggle

Tracy Watkins (Dom Post): Hide offered me Epsom, says Don Brash

Stephen Franks: Democratic parties, the role of outsiders, and Don Brash

Tracy Watkins (Stuff): Thick skin Hide’s undoing

John Armstrong (NZH): Time for Hide to walk the plank

Derek Cheng (NZH): Let me lead or I’ll bleed you dry, Brash tells Act

Derek Cheng (NZH): Brash chases leadership of party he hasn’t joined

NZPA/TV3: Brash on ACT leadership bid: “It’s just politics’

Tracy Watkins (Dom Post): Banks backs Brash

NZPA: Brash to make bid for ACT leadership

TVNZ: Q+A’s Guyon Espiner Interviews Dr Don Brash

TVNZ: Q+A’s Panel Discussion: In response to DON BRASH interview