NZ Politics Daily: 19 April (liberation)

Across the political spectrum today there is debate about the wisdom of National trying to save Act and United Future in electorate contests this year. Rob Hosking – NBR: Key’s nudge, wink and grin to Epsom Nats begins reports John Key’s denial that any deal has been done over Epsom, but clearly the Beehive has decided, on balance, that they would be better off with Act in Parliament. Act certainly need all the help they can get looking at the latest polling from TV3 (Patrick Gower: Epsom win crucial for ACT), while National may have the luxury of a single party government (Newstalk ZB: Poll shows National could govern alone). Key’s ability to convince National voters in Epsom to hold their noses and vote Hide for the greater good is widely doubted: see Kiwiblog: Epsom and Ohariu, IrishBill at The Standard: Some Epsom arithmetic and Whaleoil: Are Act rooted II.

There seems to be a broad consensus on two points. Firstly that this is not just about the 2011 election: “If both ACT and UnitedFuture disappear at this election, National will have just one potential ally left, the Maori Party, which could leave it struggling to form a government, if not this year then in 2014.” (Tracy Watkins: National likely to help Dunne, Hide). Secondly that the polls nationally and in Epsom and Ohariu just before the election will be critical as to how far the strategy is pushed and accepted by National voters: “polls in the last few weeks could be considerably influential – far more so that what the party hierarchy want” (Kiwiblog). Whaleoil thinks the strategy is good – just that it needs one less ingredient – Rodney Hide, while Offsetting Behaviour (Strategic voting in Epsom) takes the cunning plans to a new level with the possibility of Labour/Green voters supporting Hide in Epsom. Too clever by half possibly.

TV3’s latest political poll is the gift that keeps kicking for Labour. Elizabeth Puranam reports that the Poll shows Labour supporters expect Goff to lose. While brave faces and grim optimism are the order of the day for Labour MPs - see Distractions blamed for Labour’s poor polling and Claire Trevett, NZH: Goff hopes to prove grim poll results are wrong – the way onward and upward in the polls for Labour is being hotly disputed, sparked by ex-Labour strategist John Pagani’s Yeah we’ve got problems… (yesterdays NZPD). Dim-Post (The blogger’s reply to the strategist), Rob Carr (Pagani’s Poor Advice) and The Standard (Pagani dead wrong) are inclined to disagree with Pagani’s prescription. The inability to even agree on what strategy is currently being followed, let alone what it should be, speaks volumes to the dilemma.

Chris Trotter takes the sentiment so inelegantly expressed by Damien O’Connor and builds it into a comprehensive bollocking of Labour and Goff for failing to reconnect with mainstream voters: “For a moment there they thought he was going to turn Labour away from its effete social liberalism and back towards the robust proletarianism of yesteryear. But he didn’t. At the first sign of resistance from the social liberals in his caucus, he retreated. When push came to shove, Phil just didn’t have the balls.” (Bowalley Road: Selfish Bastards!). Trotter also points out that Labour’s current poll ratings are particularly grim for the centre-left as lost support has not been sucked up on the left as in the past with the Alliance and NZ First.

Audrey Young surveys all of the above and concludes that the ‘new leader’ strategy that seemed to have been killed off may yet be resurrected - Labour leadership issue re-ignited.

The real frustration for Labour is that there are many issues they could and should be scoring direct hits with as the government flounders in response to cost of living increases - see: Adam Bennett NZH, Key: We can’t help your price pain.

In other highlights, Morgan Godfery (Maui Street) has an excellent analysis of the possible outcome if the shaky Harawira-Maori Party peace deal falls over. His seat by seat analysis shows that the only government coalition partner that can stand on it’s own may be gutted at the election - The Maori Party investigates a death sentence.

Gerard Hehir - Guest NZPD editor

[Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

Below are the internet links to all the NZ politics material from the last 24 hours that are either informative, insightful, interesting or influential. This list and the links are taken from a fuller document, NZ Politics Daily, which is emailed out, Monday to Friday, to various researchers, academics, journalists, MPs and so forth. The document is purely for research purposes only, and if you would like to be on the subscription list, please email: [email protected]

National’s strategic coalition deals

Rob Hosking (NBR): Key’s nudge, wink and grin to Epsom Nats begins

Audrey Young (NZH): Key hints Epsom seat safe for Hide

Tracy Watkins (Stuff): National likely to help Dunne, Hide

Patrick Gower (TV3): Epsom win crucial for ACT (and VIDEO)

John Pagani (JP’s Posterous): National’s Epsom hypocrisy

Newstalk ZB: Poll shows National could govern alone

David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Epsom and Ohariu

Eric Crampton (Offsetting Behaviour): Strategic voting in Epsom

The Standard: Some Epsom arithmetic

Whaleoil: Are Act rooted II