liberation

Winners and losers in the Act Party leadership coup

The New Zealand political landscape changed in some major ways with the extraordinary coup by Don Brash for the leadership of the Act Party. Who wins from this unusual changing of the guard? Long-time Act-watcher, Geoffrey Miller, argues in this guest blog post that the ‘winners’ to come out of the coup are Don Brash, John Key, John Banks, Aaron Bhatnagar, Phil Goff, Hilary Calvert, and the Coastal Coalition. And the ‘losers’ are Rodney Hide, John Key, John Boscawen, Brian Nicolle, and Reform New Zealand. [Read more below].

 

NZ Politics Daily: 29 April

Act leadership. Check. John Banks as Epsom candidate. Check (just the formalities to complete). Next on the list – seize control of the Treasury. Don Brash is not one for wallowing in victory and has now publicly set his sights on being the next Minister of Finance. See: (TVNZ: Brash targets senior government role), Claire Trevett and Audrey Young: Brash aims for job as finance minister). John Key thinks Brash is getting a bit ahead of himself - Tracy Watkins and Andrea Vance (Key talks down Brash Cabinet role) - but he could hardly expect anything else and is, in any case, leaving his options open (RNZ: Key says he'd consider cabinet post for Don Brash and NZPA: Brash may be in line for minister’s portfolio). Whaleoil points to Bill English protecting his job (Whaleoil: Why rule anything in or out?) while Imperator Fish (What Next For Don Brash?) sees Brash take his winning tactics to their logical conclusion. Andrew Geddis’ blog post, It’s the sound of the New Man, running down your back, is also well worth a read.

There are eulogies for Rodney Hide (Adam Bennett: Hide leaves a colourful legacy in Parliament) and refreshers for those who might have forgotten Brash and Banks’ long political careers (John Hartevelt: Don Brash: From political punching bag to reborn leader) and Jeremy Elwood: Brash from the past). Apparently they now have their own collective nickname (Tracy Watkins: Triumph of the codgerati).

 Dire warnings about the evil influence of Dr Brash on National continue to pour forth from all but the Maori Party, who probably have most to worry about. The Dom Post (Political briefs) point out, however, that in all of Peter Dunne’s huffing and puffing he ducks the issue of whether he would go into a coalition government that includes Brash.

The latest Parliamentary spending figures are out and it seems that transparency is forcing MPs to cut back a bit on travel (DomPost: Abstemious MPs lose taste for travel), except for Hone Harawira who, unsurprisingly, has been doing a lot of travel recently (NZPA: Independent MP Hone Harawira spent $43,000 on travel in three months). No Right Turn has a detailed breakdown of Murray McCully’s drinking while overseas (Paying for McCully’s drinking). What may be more damaging to the Government, given the skepticism around the millions being poured into the America’s Cup and Rugby World Cup is the revelation that anti-violence programmes are facing large cuts , including Women’s Refuge (Simon Collins: Move cuts help to anti-violence groups) and Emma Brannam: Women’s Refuge centres under threat).

 

[Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily] 

 

National, Act, Brash and Orewa

Orewa, the name of a small seaside town north of Auckland, has been part of the New Zealand political lexicon ever since January 2004. Now, with Don Brash’s attempt to take over the Act Party, it has again surfaced in the news. Is there a connection between Orewa and the decline of Act? Will Brash take Act back to Orewa to breath life back into the party? This guest blog by Geoffrey Miller investigates these questions. [Read more below]

 

 

NZ Politics Daily: 28 April

It’s over.  It seems newbie MP Hilary Calvert switched support to Brash last night and Hide was, literally, “gone by lunchtime”.  There are many blow by blow accounts of the final days - plenty of material for a “Downfall” parody on YouTube.  Derek Cheng (NZH: Brash-Hide: Seeds of a leadership coup) has a day-by-day account but it has been hanging out there for all to see. Reaction was swift from Labour (NBR: Goff says Key/Brash extreme team will hurt mainstream NZ) who have finally caught a couple of lucky breaks. Firstly, it has got their bungling off the front page and, more importantly, provided them with a potent line of attack on “Teflon John”. If Brash is successful, Act will take votes from National and make a future Key led government reliant on Brash, a prospect sure to frighten the swing voters Labour so desperately needs and something David Farrar (Kiwiblog: Hide resigns) continues to warn about. John Hartevelt (Stuff: Brash’s stab-in-the-front coup) thinks that, despite Hide’s gracious resignation, Act will be even more divided now. He also highlights the inevitable tension between the government’s current coalition partners:

 

‘Consider the picture for a future National-led government. Can you really imagine Tariana Turia signing on to a government that includes Brash? In September 2006, Turia cancelled a scheduled engagement with Brash over comments he made questioning whether Maori were a distinct indigenous group because few ''full-blooded'' individuals were still around’.

 

Morgan Godfrey (Maui Street: What Brash means for the Maori Party) agrees but also thinks that a reinvigorated Act means the Maori Party is expendable to National.

For the most entertaining read you can’t go past Cactus Kate (ACT The Sequel). A proud and true acolyte, she has two-ticked Act at every election. While the post-coup form is for a chorus of ‘for they are a jolly good fellows’ she isn’t having any of it and lets rip on Act MPs and staff, current and past. Her advice to Brash is not to trust anyone who helped him become Leader and she obviously has serious doubts about the Don himself:

 

‘I doubt any of Hide's team will want to stay on to assist what is effectively a National take-over of ACT. That's right, the Party was taken over by Brash, a Nat and his mostly National supporters because ACT people couldn't collectively keep their shit together and stop infighting. I thought it would be a cold day in hell before Douglas passed the parcel to a true Nat. But there you go’.

The changes in Act and the splintering of the Maori Party give John Key a good excuse to call an early election according to Guyon Espiner (TVNZ: Key should call snap election), although it seems that Hone Harawira may be thinking along the same lines in Te Tai Tokerau (Claire Trevett, NZH: Harawira weighs up forcing early vote).

In other articles Q+A Producer Tim Watkin (TVNZ: Asking ‘why’ of Aghanistan) defends the right to question the rights and wrongs of military intervention without being labeled as disloyal. Dene Mackenzie (ODT: OECD report spurs English) reports as Bill English cherry picks an OECD report to support the upcoming budget, while the CTU (Stuff: OECD super advice 'badly timed', says CTU) says following the advice could lead us back into recession. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

 

NZ Politics Daily: 27 April

The Act Party appears to be trying to end its nightmare today with an emergency meeting. As of this morning, however, Don Brash appeared to have fallen one vote short in his extraordinary bid for Act’s leadership (Derek Cheng: Brash Act coup shaky as Boscawen backs Hide and Duncan Garner: Brash throws down the gauntlet). While The Standard fingers newcomer Hilary Calvert as a possible waverer (It’s all on Calvert), Deputy Leader John Boscawen is the popular pick as the crucial vote needed on both sides (Act faces ‘oblivion’ without change - Brash and Hide’s future in hands of a single MP). Derek Cheng speculates that Boscawen may have previously indicated support for Brash and thus triggered the coup (Boscawen looks like he's changed his mind).

Although the Act Board has the final say, Hide’s position would be unsustainable if he can’t muster a majority in his caucus. With only one vote in it Brash isn’t giving up yet (Vernon Small: Brash still certain he can beat Hide) and is continuing to wage his very public coup with leaked polls. James Murray (Brash is bold, Colonel Mustard’s in a pickle has the poll details and a good analysis of the coalition dilemma National may face in the next few elections, while Geoffrey Miller (liberation: Don Brash’s move from National to Act) looks at how Brash ended up with National  rather than Act back in 2002.  The New Zealand Herald editorial (Brash move on Act may also constrain Key) approves of Brash’s growing political influence: ‘He would be a greater irritant to the Key Government than Mr Hide has been, and the Government's economic direction could be better for that. With or without Act, he is back’.

Jon Stephenson’s investigative piece on SAS prisoners in Afghanistan for Metro magazine (Eyes wide shut – The Government’s guilty secrets in Afghanistan; not online) is a must read. As Russell Brown (Public Address: More Secrets and Lies) says:

 

“It is the kind of journalism we very rarely see in New Zealand: developed over years; reported from the ground, via trusted sources and through scrutiny of the documents of war and politics. Other media organisations have baulked at this story, perhaps concerned about political fallout. Metro editor Simon Wilson did take it on, and worked closely with Jon on the feature that made print.”

 

What is fascinating is how SAS soldiers are clearly very upset over the treatment of their prisoners by American and Afghani forces but have been let down by their senior commanders and governments (both Labour and National) whose solution to the problem owes more to Pontius Pilate than the Geneva Convention: ‘it seems the NZDF put in place a process it hoped would allow it to cover its legal obligations in Afghanistan — not by ensuring the humane treatment of prisoners, but by avoiding responsibility for any who might be treated inhumanely’.

Although Labour has joined the Greens in calling for an enquiry (Pressure grows for SAS prisoner inquiry) it is easy to see why they were slow off the mark. Phil Goff tries to spin that the problem has ‘been renewed under the National government” but Jon Stephenson is very clear that this started under Labour and has continued up until today under National.  [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

Don Brash’s move from National to Act

Don Brash’s current bid for the leadership of the Act Party is viewed as a National Party takeover of the minor party – because Don Brash is an ex-leader of National.  However, in reality Brash has always been seen as more aligned with the ideologies of Act - after all, when he was a National MP he was dubbed 'Act’s tenth MP’. So, is Don Brash naturally more of an Act Party politician than a National Party one? And if so, why didn’t he join Act in the first place, and not National? And just what is the relationship between Brash and Act? In this guest blog post by Geoffrey Miller, attempts to answer these questions, suggesting that much might be explained by the personalities of Michelle Boag and Catherine Judd. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily - 26 April

He has made them an offer they can’t refuse – but will they anyway? Don Brash’s extraordinary external leadership bid has everyone scrambling to figure the odds of 1) a successful coup, and 2) the impact on Act’s polling, and 3) the impact on the election in general. Tracy Watkins (Thick skin Hide’s undoing) and John Armstrong (Time for Hide to walk the plank) clearly believe that Hide should sacrifice himself, but there seems to be a consensus that Hide is unlikely to go quietly. In another article Watkins reports that it may have been Hide’s own manoeuvring that set off this hostile take-over (Hide offered me Epsom, says Don Brash) and profiles Brash’s wealthy and powerful allies. There is debate about how much inside support Brash has in Act (aside from Heather Roy and Roger Douglas) but it seems his main weapon is a thoroughly ruthless logic – Let me lead or I’ll bleed you dry, Brash tells Act (Derek Cheng).

It seems clear that this has taken many by surprise, and reactions – on the right in particular – vary widely. Whaleoil is scathing of Bill English’s negative response while John Key was overseas (What are National thinking?) and points out how John Key immediately took a far more pragmatic line on his return (John Key on Brash). David Farrar, on the other hand, has taken some time and effort to spell out all the negatives for Act, Don Brash and the centre-right (Hide v Brash) and Don’s decision).  The main fear seems to be that Brash will provide a much juicier target than Hide for the centre–left while bleeding votes from National. On the other hand, apart from Farrar’s faint reassurances, the consensus is that Act is a dead party walking.

The nature of the leadership coup has also attracted much comment. The technical difficulties of a non-member, non-MP to seize the leadership in a parliamentary party are laid out by Derek Cheng in Brash chases leadership of party he hasn’t joined), but it’s the sidelining of Act’s membership in the process that has outraged some (Kiwiblog: Are there any ACT members involved in the Brash bid?). Stephen Franks (Democratic parties, the role of outsiders, and Don Brash) admits that such a move would have been unthinkable a few years ago but thinks the heavy price parties pay in the media for any dissent means we may see more fluidity of membership between parties under MMP.  Don Brash and Act, however, do have a history of somewhat clumsy and messy coups, which Geoffrey Miller looks at in a guest blog post on liberation (Don Brash – a new hope or an old headache for the ACT Party?). And although it seems extraordinary that a serious leadership coup is being constructed from outside of the actual party by a ex-leader of a rival party, as I pointed out on RNZ Morning Report (audio) there are actually precedents for this with Act (Richard Prebble made a takeover from outside in 1996; John Banks had talks about taking over the leadership in 2004).

 The SAS continues to attract attention with a major investigative piece by Jon Stevenson in Metro (not online) claiming that prisoners of our SAS have been regularly handed over to Afghani security forces known to torture and abuse their captives.  Labour remains silent leaving it to the Greens (Greens want inquiry into SAS prisoner claims) to counter Wayne Mapp’s denials.  Kiwipolitico  (Tactical Utu in a Strategic Quagmire) has a good piece arguing that the SAS’s recent activity points to a worsening situation for the whole New Zealand mission in Afghanistan.

In other news John Hartevelt covers the growing uncertainty in the public sector (Shallow talent pool poses challenges and Public sector in for upheaval – SSC boss).  The gloves are about to come off between the Maori Party and Hone Harawira’s new Mana Party to be launched this weekend according to Duncan Garner (Harawira close to ending truce with Maori Party). Claire Trevett lays out the Maori Party’s likely strategy to deal with the challenge (Twists and turns of the life after Hone) which Morgan Godfery (Maui Street: The Herald on Maori politics) praises but rebuts point by point and John Armstrong doubts that Winston Peters can achieve a parliamentary comeback this year as other parties have moved in on his old hot-button issues (Once the rebel – now in need of a cause). [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

Don Brash – a new hope or an old headache for the Act Party?

‘Don Brash clearly believes he can do Mr Hide's job.  Equally clearly, many of his colleagues do not - as yet.  If they were really confident Dr Brash was up to it, he would have been installed as leader by the end of this week, so wretched has been Mr Hide's performance.  But Dr Brash is not of a mind to get the message.  For the party's sake, he should have done one of two things. Either organised his putsch with absolute secrecy until the deed had been done. Or issued a statement at some point in the past couple of days pledging his loyalty to Mr Hide’. These comments, with a little imagination, could be from today. But with the exception of ‘Mr Hide’, they are not. They are the words of New Zealand Herald political commentator John Armstrong from October 2003. The parallels are instructive for understanding the Act-Brash dilemma of 2011 – and this is what is examined in the guest blog post by Geoffrey Miller. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily: 21 April

TVNZ scored a scoop last night when they forced Defence Minister Wayne Mapp to admit the SAS had been involved in a mission to kill the insurgents allegedly responsible for the death of Lieutenant Tim O'Donnell last August. The initial line of questioning as to whether this was a revenge attack has been quickly denied by the government (DomPost/NZPA: SAS attack not ‘revenge killing’ – Mapp. As is often the case with war stories the full facts can take quite some time to emerge (it has taken six months just to find out it happened at all).

Derek Cheng (NZH: SAS strike not revenge killing – minister) does add important information:

 “The district's governor initially said there were eight civilian casualties, and a Nato investigation later revealed a malfunctioning gunsight on a coalition helicopter that had resulted in errant shots hitting a building. The building was struck mistakenly, but was previously used as base of insurgent operations. US Air Force Brigadier General Timothy M. Zadalis said at the time that the coalition regretted "any possible civilian loss of life or injury” Dr Mapp said investigations had found that no civilians were killed in the strike”. 

Hopefully some of those reporters we see on billboards posing in flak jackets may help to clear any “fog of war” around this story. 

In the same article Keith Locke reiterates the Greens’ opposition to NZ’s military presence - the only opposition politician willing to comment so far. It will be interesting to see if the Greens’ defence spokesperson who replaces Keith Locke will be as unequivocal and consistent as he has been, regardless of the political winds. John Hartevelt (DomPost: We’re not mentioning the war) notes Phil Goff’s current silence on the war despite his long experience in Defence and Foreign Affairs and previous statements that we should be out of there. A better line of attack on National, he thinks, than helicopter rides.

Nevertheless, the helicopter ride does attract quite a bit of attention and even detailed analysis (Adam Bennett NZH: Govt use of RNZAF aircrafts doubles) but, as Duncan Garner points out in his weekly summary (TV3: The week in politics – VIDEO), Labour spent quite a bit of time in government flying the friendly skies with RNZAF and so would be unwise to push it too far.

Labour’s latest anti-asset sales campaign involving mock stop signs has, almost inevitably it seems, backfired a bit on them as David Farrar gives them a lesson on road rules in (Kiwiblog): Did Labour check the law) and James Meager (mydeology) builds a convincing case for the prosecution in Labour’s diabolical master plan unveiled. There is a sideshow as to whether the signs have promoter statements as required under electoral law (Andrew Geddis, Pundit: A sign o’ the times and John Pagani, Posterous: Sad cases and So, was that ‘sorry’?). Pagani does seem to have a lot of time for blogging his view of everything and everyone these days. Labour supporters who were critical of his efforts in Goff's office are unlikely to be grateful for his prolific insights.

In other articles of interest, Morgan Godfery (Maui Street: The Mana Party…Coming soon) seems to have the inside running on Hone Harawira’s new party and John Minto (Scoop: The Front: Dark Shadow of the State Creeps On…) provides a comprehensive list of legislation restricting civil liberties passed since 2001. It includes this analysis of the 2007 Terrorism Suppression Amendment Act:

“There are many examples of protest activity and civil disobedience from past events such as the 1981 Springbok tour, which could now be classified as terrorist….Under the new law it would have been illegal to provide support for the African National Congress in the fight against apartheid or for campaigns to have Nelson Mandela released from jail”.

Gerard Hehir

Guest Editor NZPD

 [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

Dunedin’s many Labour Party MPs

It was rather appropriate that the Labour Party frontbench MPs met in Dunedin last month to discuss the party’s on-going woes over leadership, poll ratings, and the Darren Hughes saga. This city has a strong connection with Labour’s past, present and future. It is especially notable that many of the party’s rising stars and leadership contenders have strong links to Dunedin – David Cunliffe and Grant Robertson have spent considerable time here, and David Parker still does. All three of them are increasingly talked about as replacements for Phil Goff. [This column, written for Fairfax’s Dunedin DScene newspaper, continues below]

 

NZ Politics Daily: 20 April

When you’re down on your luck everyone is generous with the advice and Labour are getting it in bucketfuls. Their supporters are not afraid to dish it out to each other in public. John Pagani continues to defend his critique of Labour’s strategy in Ummm,no and On theories of opposition. It seems almost everyone has mis-interpreted what he is trying to say. The subtlety of his argument appears to be eluding his critics – possibly for the same reasons voter support eludes Labour. There are a few good analyses of Labour’s woes – some date back quite a few weeks but are, unfortunately for Labour, still very relevant. 

Most mainstream commentators have sympathy for Goff’s inability to get traction and seem to attribute much to just plain bad luck. Jane Clifton (The Listener: Seismic Turnaround) writes ‘But let’s make an exception for poor Phil Goff, for whom no wind does anything but biff him about the chops, and yet who nevertheless has to watch as even the nastiest gales seem to benefit the Government. Which could not be said particularly to deserve it.’  Clifton also does a detailed profile of all the pretenders to Goff’s throne in Dog Tucker.

Many on the left are not so hesitant in apportioning blame and suggesting solutions.  Steven Cowan (Against the Current: Dead Party Walking), Simon Wilson (Metro: Teflon John and Feeble Phil; not online) and Chris Trotter (Metro: The Silence of the Labour’s lambs; not online) all identify Labour’s leadership as the blockage in need of clearing.

National’s election deals attract a little attention – mostly denials that any deals have been done. See: Felix Marwick, Newstalk ZB: Hide’s luck continues and Tracy Watkins Dom Post: Dunne says he’s unfazed as Nats talk tactics. 

As the Maori Party strives to put distance between itself and the government on issues important to the Maori electorate (TV3: Maori Party wants iwi consultation), Tim Selwyn (Tumeke!: The rising tide contender for North Shore) says too little, too late.

The PM’s use of an Iroquois helicopter to avoid traffic delays gets plenty of coverage but as The Dim-Post (On the other hand…) comments, it isn’t going to be a knockout blow for Labour.

Both the Family Court (Tracy Watkins, Stuff: Blowout sparks Family Court review) and the Public Prosecution Service (Andrea Vance, Stuff: Review to scrutinize pubic prosecution services) are getting braced for shake-ups clearly aimed at containing costs. 

Alex Tarrant (interest.co.nz) finds that there should be no surprises in a NZ First/Labour coalition as their key economic policies are very much in tune: What to expect from a coalition of the left. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

Gerard Hehir (Guest Editor NZPD)

NZ Politics Daily: 19 April

Across the political spectrum today there is debate about the wisdom of National trying to save Act and United Future in electorate contests this year. Rob Hosking – NBR: Key’s nudge, wink and grin to Epsom Nats begins reports John Key’s denial that any deal has been done over Epsom, but clearly the Beehive has decided, on balance, that they would be better off with Act in Parliament. Act certainly need all the help they can get looking at the latest polling from TV3 (Patrick Gower: Epsom win crucial for ACT), while National may have the luxury of a single party government (Newstalk ZB: Poll shows National could govern alone). Key’s ability to convince National voters in Epsom to hold their noses and vote Hide for the greater good is widely doubted: see Kiwiblog: Epsom and Ohariu, IrishBill at The Standard: Some Epsom arithmetic and Whaleoil: Are Act rooted II.

There seems to be a broad consensus on two points. Firstly that this is not just about the 2011 election: “If both ACT and UnitedFuture disappear at this election, National will have just one potential ally left, the Maori Party, which could leave it struggling to form a government, if not this year then in 2014.” (Tracy Watkins: National likely to help Dunne, Hide). Secondly that the polls nationally and in Epsom and Ohariu just before the election will be critical as to how far the strategy is pushed and accepted by National voters: “polls in the last few weeks could be considerably influential – far more so that what the party hierarchy want” (Kiwiblog). Whaleoil thinks the strategy is good – just that it needs one less ingredient – Rodney Hide, while Offsetting Behaviour (Strategic voting in Epsom) takes the cunning plans to a new level with the possibility of Labour/Green voters supporting Hide in Epsom. Too clever by half possibly.

TV3’s latest political poll is the gift that keeps kicking for Labour. Elizabeth Puranam reports that the Poll shows Labour supporters expect Goff to lose. While brave faces and grim optimism are the order of the day for Labour MPs  - see Distractions blamed for Labour’s poor polling and Claire Trevett, NZH: Goff hopes to prove grim poll results are wrong – the way onward and upward in the polls for Labour is being hotly disputed, sparked by ex-Labour strategist John Pagani’s Yeah we’ve got problems… (yesterdays NZPD). Dim-Post (The blogger’s reply to the strategist), Rob Carr (Pagani’s Poor Advice) and The Standard (Pagani dead wrong) are inclined to disagree with Pagani’s prescription. The inability to even agree on what strategy is currently being followed, let alone what it should be, speaks volumes to the dilemma. 

Chris Trotter takes the sentiment so inelegantly expressed by Damien O’Connor and builds it into a comprehensive bollocking of Labour and Goff for failing to reconnect with mainstream voters: “For a moment there they thought he was going to turn Labour away from its effete social liberalism and back towards the robust proletarianism of yesteryear. But he didn’t. At the first sign of resistance from the social liberals in his caucus, he retreated. When push came to shove, Phil just didn’t have the balls.” (Bowalley Road: Selfish Bastards!). Trotter also points out that Labour’s current poll ratings are particularly grim for the centre-left as lost support has not been sucked up on the left as in the past with the Alliance and NZ First.

Audrey Young surveys all of the above and concludes that the ‘new leader’ strategy that seemed to have been killed off may yet be resurrected -  Labour leadership issue re-ignited.

The real frustration for Labour is that there are many issues they could and should be scoring direct hits with as the government flounders in response to cost of living increases - see: Adam Bennett NZH, Key: We can’t help your price pain. 

In other highlights, Morgan Godfery (Maui Street) has an excellent analysis of the possible outcome if the shaky Harawira-Maori Party peace deal falls over. His seat by seat analysis shows that the only government coalition partner that can stand on it’s own may be gutted at the election - The Maori Party investigates a death sentence. 

Gerard Hehir - Guest NZPD editor

[Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily] 

 

NZ Politics Daily: 18 April

Labour’s polling problems clearly aren’t driven by a lack of media coverage. Yet again, the party is currently the subject of most of the political news and views in the domestic politics scene. TV3’s latest 27% poll for Labour is the main source of this discussion – see: Dan Satherley (TV3): The polls don't lie - Labour needs a miracle.

The best summary of Labour’s current problems and its consequences is found in the Imperator Fish blog post, Awful Poll Smashes Labour Hopes:

 

‘The failings of Labour have now become the dominant theme in political discourse in this country. So awful have Labour been that they've handed National a free pass. Instead of investigating the South Canterbury Finance debacle and asking tough questions of the government, political journalists are more interested in reporting on the squabbles and strife within the main opposition party. I suspect that only a cleanout at the top, and of the dead wood within the party, will do the trick. This will probably happen when (as now seems increasingly likely) Labour is smashed to bits in November’.

Phil Goff’s recently departed chief spindoctor, John Pagani, also has an interesting take on it all in the blog post, Problems, we got problems, but they’re not the problems you think. The response in the blogosphere seems to be to pan Pagani – see, for example, the Imperator Fish post Look At The Polls! And even some of Labour’s most fervent cheerleaders are starting to lose faith and even drop out – see The Standard’s blog post: I’m sorry, I’m out. And then further bad publicity pops up – Labour list insults Ratana Church. Also, check out Stephen Braunias’ Secret diary of Damien O'Connor, and Colin James’ thoughtful Dominion Post column, Labour in transition as it strives for relevance. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

 

NZ Politics Daily: 15 April

Labour was burnt to a crispy black(out) by the interwebs when it tried to update copyright laws in the digital age, so it cannot be any surprise to National that ramming their version through under urgency has re-ignited the critics. The requirement for the accused to prove their innocence is the most inflammatory provision, especially when, as Derek Cheng in the NZ Herald reports - Net piracy: prove innocence or face fine - 30% of cases overseas fail to prove copyright infringement. The possibility of hapless parents being pinged under the new law for their teenager’s piracy is explored by Bronwyn Torrie in Internet law may catch parents unawares while Peter Griffin (Listener) in The future will be streamed points out that the real hardcore copyright infringers have many options for evading both detection and penalties under the law.  The laws first “victim” is probably National MP Melissa Lee whose denunciation of digital pirates in parliament was somewhat undermined by a tweet of hers a few days ago thanking a friend for compiling some Korean music for her. Lee claims the music was bought legitimately but Chris Keall from the NBR points out that, unless an unlikely set of circumstances apply - Melissa Lee, you appear to be a pirate.

Labour appears to have stumbled into a pitfall normally reserved for junior coalition parties – voting for something you publicly claim to be against. MP Clare Curran has been toiling hard to make up for Labour’s copyright debacle while in government and invokes the “it would have been worse if we hadn’t co-operated” defence at Red Alert - No New Zealander can be disconnected from the internet. Comments on the blog ask why Labour didn’t at least support the Greens amendment to remove the disconnection penalty completely and No Right Turn simply wants to know what Labour would do if they had the numbers in the house - A question for Labour on the copyright bill. The answer appears to be that if the disconnection section that Labour voted for was ever actually used Clare Curran would want it repealed.

The Canterbury Earthquake and Recovery Act (CERA) is attracting it’s own heat – particularly within Canterbury and from constitutional experts. 

Both John Hopkins from The Press  Cera bill threatens democracy and Dean Knight: CERA Mark II: Henry VIII clauses and Purposes – a starter for 10? are scornful of the supposed checks and balances on the extraordinary powers the act confers.  Andrew Geddis at Pundit pokes some fun at Labour’s Clayton Cosgrove for an apparent u turn on the need for legal nicieties while “digging sewage out of your own home” in Someone give that man a latte.

In other news Vernon Small writes about the latest secret escalation of our military commitment in Afghanistan in Secret shipment follows Kiwi soldier’s death. The secrecy and escalation are both primarily to protect the existing deployment but Small notes how our involvement Afghanistan has now run twice as long as WW2 and compares in scale to Vietnam .

In the NBR Matthew Hooton gives a very detailed and rational analysis of why Hide can expect no favours from national this election in Nats to reject Act deal in Epsom (not currently online).

[Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily] 

 

NZ Politics Daily: 14 April

Timing is everything they say and Labour’s Grant Robertson and blogger David Farrar’s launch of a non-partisan attack on the government’s abuse of urgency - Stop pushing laws through too quickly, say critics - was spot on, coming the same week that a number of major and controversial bills are to be rushed through. The Christchurch earthquake legislation no longer has unanimous support in Parliament and Derek Cheng covers the debate into just how absolute the powers are: Brownlee: I wouldn’t ‘fight a war’ with new powers. It will be a case of finding out after the fact, however, as Newstalk ZB reports that local Canterbury councils aren’t impressed with 24 hours notice to make submissions: Labour disgusted at rushed consultation. Labour’s Lianne Dalziel puts some of the blame for the need for such wide-ranging legislation on the Christchurch City Council’s failure to plan after the first September quake: Quake recovery bill needed because ‘council too slow’. Eric Crampton - Picking the high variance play - has a good summary of the powers the legislation confers.

While there is general agreement that the earthquake legislation required some urgency, the same cannot be said for the passing of the Copyright (Infringing File Sharing) Amendment Bill. This was a quagmire for the last government and was, is and will be very controversial for many years to come. Toby Manhire from the Listener sums up the outrage in Blackout is back – an online roundup. As David Farrar points out in An own goal the government was managing the process comfortably until yesterday but the law will now be stained as undemocratic as well as draconian. As Martin Kay and Andrea Vance report on Stuff there is much suspicion out in the interwebs that MPs voting on this bill really do not understand the issues at stake - Controversial internet file-sharing law passed.  Russell Brown has a measured response to the final legislation - The file sharing bill -  while No Right Turn highlights how the bill represents a fundamental shift in the principles of justice in The return of guilt by accusation. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

NZ Politics Daily: 13 April

There’s so much going on in politics at the moment, it’s sometimes hard to know where to start. Labour’s list problems are finally starting to fade into the past, but nonetheless there are 15 items in this category today, so the debate hasn’t quite ended. The most interesting and insightful blog posts on the matter are from Will de Cleene (Messiah Ward) and David Farrar (Labour’s Diversity).

But it’s the general topic of the economy – and National’s management of it –  that’s the main issue of the day, and there’s plenty to consume on this – such as Fran O’Sullivan’s column, Bravo, English, for talking tough (http://bit.ly/e0WSIX). But the Government’s own expenditure on itself is generating the most interesting questions – see: John Armstrong’s PM comes close to saying he is not responsible  and Jessica Mutch’s Heat still on Ministers’ BMWs.

Law and Order issues are suddenly everywhere as well – lots of sound and fury is being generated. But the most interesting and important single item of the day is Helen Kelly’s account of The Hobbit Dispute. This is being heralded by Labour activists and MPs as the definitive indictment of the current government, yet this argument would carry a lot more weight if the Opposition had actually taken a side in the dispute at the time – which they didn’t (see this account from during the dispute: ‘We are not for the Hobbit workers, and we are not against them’ – Labour Party)  [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

NZ Politics Daily: 12 April

There’s a lot of very good coverage in the media and blogosphere of the Labour Party’s MMP list and the fall out over Damien O’Connor’s controversial outburst. The debate has very quickly shifted into an analysis of Labour MP demographics and what I regard as the party’s obsession with ‘identity politics’. I put forward this analysis yesterday in a number of media interviews, but today I’ve elaborated on the argument is a lengthy post on my blog liberation, entitled, Labour’s 2011 party list – the triumph of identity politics. But there are plenty of other diverse points of view on the matter, and I’ve included them in the document below. Claire Trevett weighs up the diversity of Labour’s caucus - O'Connor's apology only goes so far. Tim Watkin’s Pundit post is well worth reading –Labour's list not diverse enough... and lessons from '93, and Rob Salmond provides a good counter to arguments that identity politics rule the Labour Party – Self-serving malcontents and a gaggle of garbage. And Phil Quin nicely suggests we all skip the argument and look to Labour’s other problems - Labour’s Problem is NOT too much diversity (or too little). [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

Labour’s 2011 party list – the triumph of identity politics

Is that the best that Labour could come up with? The Labour Party list for 2011 can be described as conservative, a poor use of the MMP list system, promoting non-performers and careerists, and effectively it amounts to ‘incumbency protection’. But more than anything else, the list proves once again that Labour cares more about ‘identity politics’ than ‘class politics’. Quite simply, the party is so consumed with the social backgrounds of its candidates – especially their gender, ethnicity and sexuality – that it forgets about socio-economics and actually being a workers’ party. These are the points that I tried to get across yesterday in interviews on RNZ's Morning Report (listen here) and TVNZ's Close Up (watch here). This blog post elaborates on the points I tried to make on the radio, as well as analysing some of the demographics involved in Labour’s likely list MPs, and it surveys what other commentators have been saying about Labour’s list. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily: 11 April

‘Is that the best that Labour could come up with?’ This seems to be the collective question asked by political commentators – and MP Damian O’Connor – about the party’s new list for the 2011 election.  In particular, there’s a lot of analysis of who are the ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ to come out of the ranking exercise. In this regard, it’s worth having a look at the calculations and comparisons done by No Right Turn (Labour's list) and David Farrar (Labour's list). It seems pretty clear that the winners are people like Ruth Dyson (#5), Parekura Horomia (#6), Sue Moroney (#10), Nanaia Mahuta (#12), Darien Fenton (#18), etc. while the ‘losers’ are seen to be Shane Jones (#16), Phil Twyford (#33) and Stuart Nash (#27). 

Today’s political focus has quickly shifted to the controversy over Damien O’Connor’s rather poorly expressed exasperation about the creation of the party list and his allegations of bias. Many commentators have been quick to dismiss the unfortunate and bizarre wording of O’Connor’s outburst, while suggesting that the substance of his allegations does, however, deserve some credence or investigation. David Farrar was very good on this point – see: O’Connor attacks labour list domination by gays and unionists, saying that ‘O’Connor could have made the point that straight white males struggle to get good list rankings, due to the identity politics in Labour, without labelling people as a “gaggle of gays”’ and that ‘Damien has a legitimate gripe, but the way he has gone about expressing it does him little credit’.

Patrick Gower has also delved into Labour’s identity politics, with this post: White men can't jump the Labour list. Meanwhile Grant Robertson has essentially called for calm over the list, saying Its bigger than all of us.

 There are two must-read satirical accounts of Labour’s new list (and the commentary surrounding it):

 • Will de Cleene (Gonzofreakpower): Newborn Labour Party Messiah given high List placing for 2029 election

 • Imperator Fish: Critics Slam Labour List Selections

  [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

NZ Politics Daily: 8 April

There’s an interesting mixture of both consensus and squabbling in the fallout over the bailout of AMI as well as the decline of NZPA and TVNZ7. With the bailout, all parliamentary parties have essentially signed up to apparent reality that the financial institution was too big to fail, especially in light of the earthquake. Commentators, too, are in agreement about this – see: Bernard Hickey article on interest.co.nz, Why the government had to bail out AMI, Audrey Young’s Too big to let fail... minister makes solid case for rescue, and Corin Dann’s AMI bailout had to happen. Where the debate starts occurring is on the question of how will the Government afford this latest run on the taxpayer’s funds. See the Newstalk ZB articles ACT backs AMI package and SOE sale could fund AMI package, in which Rodney Hide argues for further spending cuts and I am quoted as predicting that increased borrowing will result, with perhaps a greater urgency for partial privatisation. The most interesting blog post on the bailout is on Labour-friendly Standard, which channels the party’s residual neoliberalism in making the case for letting AMI go bust – see: AMI socialises its losses.

Within parliamentary politics, the squabbles over TVNZ7 and the Mediaworks loan are still going strong. Necessary questions are being asked about privatisation, commercialisation, and cronyism – even if there is nothing particularly tangible arising from those questions. The wider changes in the media environment are most analytically dealt with by John Drinnan's excellent weekly Herald column, this week entitled RNZ touts its news to private sector and William Mace’s rival Stuff column, The media week that was. Drinnan reports on the significant news that Radio NZ might be branching out into the private sector. Although not covered in these articles, the Listener has recently given its website (www.listener.co.nz) a major upgrade and is now well-worth using – especially for the daily Internaut column by the excellent Toby Manhire. Yesterday’s internaut was particularly good: The tupperwaka party.

There’s plenty of material on the economy in today’s NZPD – and not just about the travails of capitalism, but also about the struggle that poor and middle-income earners are currently facing – see, for example: TVNZ’s Budgeting groups say government ‘out of touch’ and Demand for food parcels increasing. The Waikato Times article, Middle income budget falls short shows how the Labour Party are campaigning hard on this. But if your concern is more for the rich, check out the plight of the NBR’s Cantabrian rich list who have been made homeless: Canterbury who’s who without an address. And the PSA have smartly picked up on the ‘Nice to have’ line that is everywhere in political commentary and are using it for an effective campaign, but one which is being mercilessly derided and parodied by the right – see: Whaleoil’s Social Media FAIL by PSA and David Farrar’s PSA fail. The PSA are probably thinking, ‘All publicity is good publicity’. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

NZ Politics Daily: 7 April

Politicos everywhere will be saddened by the demise of both the New Zealand Press Association and the TVNZ7 channel. Both private and public sectors seem to have problems sustaining quality media – and it appears to be a problem under both Labour and National governments. The must-read commentary on the NZPA news is by Karl du Fresne – see: A seriously retrograde step. David Farrar also pays appropriate tribute to the strengths of NZPA’s parliamentary reporting in his blog post, Fairfax kills NZPA. The Press has a good backgrounder on the problems inherent in the TVNZ digital strategy set up by the last Labour Government – see: New era in television, and Derek Cheng has some vaguely good news in his story, Radio NZ service is safe for now.

The almost multi-partisan approach to media in this country also appears to apply to company bailouts. The National Government’s rescue of AMI insurance appears at this stage to be supported across the political spectrum (perhaps with the exception of Act). As Newstalk ZB’s Felix Marwick said on Twitter, ‘We’re all socialists now’. Although Imperator Fish suggests that it’s not really socialism, but corporate welfare, and the sector is in dire need of greater regulation – see: Here Comes Another Bailout. And Quentin Findlay gives a bit of backgrounder in Kiwi state involvement in insurance, and calls for on-going nationalisation in the sector – see: Nationalisation is not a Dirty Word. The best overall coverage of the bailout is in the Stuff article (of 4 pages), Quake-hit AMI insurance bailout could cost $1 billion. And Jenni McManus provides a useful summary, A history of bailouts.

On the issue of the general economic management of the Government, John Armstrong gives National a very strong serve in Age of Austerity? We’re still spending on plastic? Brian Fallow has a must-read column, Wrong time to focus on long-term woes in which he questions the logic of National’s cost cutting during a recession. Pattrick Smellie’s Our children and accounts deserve better is also worth a read. 

Elsewhere in the blogosphere, David Farrar usefully details all the Maori MPs in Parliament – now 21 out of 122 – and has some sensible ideas about the future of the Maori seats - Two more Maori MPs. Jon Johansson outlines the problems with the Supplementary Member electoral system that the opponents of MMP will push for in the upcoming referendum - Prepare for the SM onslaught, and I’ve got a short blog post entitled A return of the old left-right divide?. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

A return of the old left-right divide?

New Zealand voters go to the polls on 26 November of this year to decide on our parliamentary representation and government. What will be the major election issues, and how are we to make sense of what it all means? Voters and political scientists have traditionally understood our politics by reference to the basic left-right continuum, whereby politicians of the left argue in favour of equality, worker's rights, economic intervention, larger government and collectivism, while those of the right make their appeals for votes on the basis of efficiency, smaller government, laissez faire capitalism, protection of individual freedom, individualism, and rights of private individuals. In line with these ideologies, voter behaviour was strongly class-based, with poorer voters favouring the left, and the richer favouring the right. The blog post below is a short opinion piece that was commissioned by the University of Otago Staff Bulletin to go alongside a profile piece they published about me – the PDF of the Staff Bulletin can be downloaded here. [Read more below]

 

NZ Politics Daily: 6 April

The tide seems to be turning in the Labour Party’s very negative coverage in the media and blogosphere. The talk now is all about the advice that Labour needs in order to recover from the recent sagas. Unfortunately for Labour, a lot of the advice is along the lines of ‘get rid of Goff’. This is certainly the strong message today from one of the party’s major financial backers – see Bernard Hickey’s article, Labour-linked entrepreneur Selwyn Pellett calls on Phil Goff to step down to strengthen opposition to National. One of my Politics Honours students, James Meager, has put forward ‘5 steps to election success: Labour’ on his blog mydeology.co.nz and this contains some thoughtful ideas. Rob Carr has asked the question How Left Should Labour Be?, suggesting that Labour is too centrist for its own good. And on the Dim-Post, the idea is put forward that Labour should go harder on National’s management of the economy – see: Leadership vacuum watch.

 

The ideal opportunity for Labour to do this is in relation to National’s partial privatisation proposals – and there is a whole section on the privatisation proposals in today’s NZPD. Unfortunately nearly all of this material is from the right, and so far the left has little of analytical and significant substance to say about the issue (outside of the more political rhetoric and populist/nationalist variety), but the debate is far from over. However, John Minto’s Iwi Used To Defend Economic Privatisation is well worth a read. And for a different take on Labour’s situation, see Sean Plunket’s satirical attempt to point out the problems - Too many rules make Johnny a bully boy. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

NZ Politics Daily: 5 April

Labour suddenly appears to be in a fight back mood today – calling for the Minister of Finance to resign over the finance company bailouts as well as the Government in total to resign over it’s alleged mismanagement of the economy. Yet the media and blogosphere reporting and analysis are still heavily negative towards the party. Leftwing commentator Chris Trotter is possibly the most disillusioned and critical, and in his Press column today - Vacuum to fill in Labour camp – he says that Labour’s ‘inadequate political leadership’ means that ‘Left-leaning voters have been given a powerful incentive to look elsewhere for progressive representation this November’. There’s also ongoing unhappiness about Labour’s manipulation of the MMP party lists, with the Dominion Post and Press editorials heavily critical – see: Something distinctly unsavoury going on and Cynical exercise. The Dom Post says that Labour’s ‘practice discredits the electoral system on which Parliament relies for its legitimacy’ and the Press says that although the Greens’ Russel Norman created the precedent for the manipulation,‘Labour has now taken list manipulation to a new level’. And as a result, according to Patrick Gower, ‘Labour's list simply is not worth the paper it’s written on’. And the PM says Labour is guilty of ‘false advertising’.

Also, over the weekend there were some impressively in-depth profiles published about Goff’s future replacements – see: David Parker: MP who could be Labour's king, Quietly ambitious Labour MP bides his time, and Robertson a man of Labour's future. The Herald also published Phil Quin’s very interesting account of the failed leadership coup against Helen Clark in 1996 - The anatomy of a failed Labour coup. And today, David Farrar has a comprehensive blog post on Kiwiblog about why and how Labour stuffed up the situation with Judith Tizard.

Meanwhile, the full extent of NZ’s economic woes also continues to emerge – see: Govt debt could almost double by May – expert. Unsurprisingly, there’s now a lot of commentators putting forward their recommendations for economic reform – see: Bill English and the question of innovation; How the foreign profit and interest drain has made us poorer; We’re living beyond our means: Glenn; Budget a chance for radical rethinking; and Cap on public service right thing for Wellington. Whilst these are all worth reading, it’s a pity there isn’t a more diverse range of options and ideologies on offer. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

NZ Politics Daily: 4 April

Labour’s not the only political party currently dealing with significant questions about its ideological direction and parliamentary representation – the Green Party and Hone Harawira’s nascent political vehicle have also been subject to a fair bit of discussion and analysis today. For the last few years the Greens have been slowly but surely transforming, taking on a more ‘independent’ and less radical/left persona in parallel with a total ‘changing of the guard’ in its paraliamentary representation. The initial Green party list is out today – see: Green Party list out for final vote and it shows a very different party to that elected back in 1999 – in fact there is not one single MP from the first intake that is standing for election this year. Matt McCarten’s column in the Herald, Time for the Greens to step up to the mark laments the transformation of the Greens, pointing out that not a single working class orientated politician is in the Greens’ top ten list. A more sympathetic assessment of the party’s shift is to be found in John Hartevelt’s Sunday Star Times column, Greens grow into credible left-wing option. Today the party has also signaled a possible new coalition strategy – see: Greens to mull post-election deal with National. Unsurprisingly, this approach – which ties the party less to Labour – gets the tick of approval of David Farrar on Kiwiblog – Greens getting smart.

Of course, over the last three days there’s been plenty of news and commentary on the Labour Party due to ongoing questions being raised about the Darren Hughes saga, leadership coups, Judith Tizard, and manipulation of MMP party lists. In this regard, the key texts to read are probably the following:

• Patrick Gower (TV3): Goff scared into a ‘Tiz’ by two right-wing bloggers

• Audrey Young NZH: Tizard says factions returning

• Deborah Coddington: Be very afraid when the real Labour coup comes

• Tracy Watkins (Dom Post): Goff needs to find better ammunition

• Jonathan Milne (NZH): Spectre of Tizard looms over House

• TVNZ: Labour keen to move on from Hughes saga (VIDEO) Or: TVNZ: Bumping Wall up the Labour list a ‘rort’ – commentator

 

But for lighter reading, try the political satire of Dave Armstrong (Dom Post): Can we morph several Labour MPs into one? and Stephen Braunias (Southland Times): Secret life of . . . Phil Goff.  [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

NZ Politics Daily: 1 April

It’s class war. Today the new employment laws come into effect, and there finally seems to be an element of good old-fashioned left-right disagreement and debate in play in New Zealand politics. Depending on who you read and believe, the new laws are either an attack on workers rights – see: Widespread condemnation of employment law changes and Unions fear effects of law changes  – or actually fairly moderate and normal by international standards – see: Employment law changes ‘nothing radical’ – lawyer.

In terms of the general economy, there’s some signs of potential ‘class war’ arising too. For a start, see: Treasury argues for lower tax. Corin Dann has some useful analysis – National's cuts on risky ground - saying that although most of this government’s reforms have been ‘pretty dull stuff’, ‘this week National's cutback push entered a new phase, one which has far more potential to upset some voters’. Of course, ‘Right when it should be turning up the heat and riding a wave of unease about the health of the economy, Labour has hit the self destruct button and got the leadership wobbles’.

To follow the on-going Labour Party doledrums, Matthew Hooton’s NBR column is a must-read: Labour at risk of total poll meltdown. He makes a very good argument: ‘to re-elect a government they have thrown out, voters need to see that parties have changed, almost as to be unrecognisable… A tweak here and there, better presentation and a gentle drift to the centre, is never enough’.

It seems that Judith Tizard was the main victim of today’s April Foolery – see: Tizard dismisses 'return to Parliament' as April Fool's joke. Other good efforts were also made on Kiwiblog, Frogblog, and the Dim-Post. My personal favourite was this one: Probation Period to be extended to Parliament. [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]