The Labour Party thought that the 2008 New Zealand general election would be won on the issue of trust (i.e. voters becoming suspicious of ‘slippery John’ and his ‘hidden agenda’), whereas National thought it would be won on the issue of leadership personality and engagement with voters (i.e. the idea of Helen Clark being an out-of-touch elitist vs ‘common John’ who could relate socially to ordinary Kiwis). In the end, Labour was wrong and National was right, and critical ‘image events’ helped determine National’s win according to Claire Robinson’s chapter entitled ‘Images of political leadership in the campaign’ in the new post-election book Key to Victory: The New Zealand General Election of 2008 (edited by Stephen Levine and Nigel S. Roberts) In fact, National effectively won the election back in mid-2007 by fighting and winning on the issue of leadership personality. [Read more below]
Leadership and image importance
Claire Robinson argues that John Key’s leadership was the critical factor in National’s 2008 victory. Of course leadership isn’t always such a determining factor, and Robinson says that ‘studies have found the direct effects of personality factors on election outcomes to be minimal’, and in general you can normally assume that the leadership effects only account for about 5% of the vote (p.137).
Robinson argues that ‘with the benefit of hindsight’ we can identify the moments that swayed public opinion towards John Key (p.141), and she picks a number of what she calls ‘image events’ that won National and Key the election:
‘The first was the compromise reached by Labour and National on the wording of what was heuristically called the “anti-smacking” bill’ (p.141).
- ‘Two weeks later the other event of note was John Key’s reply in the House to Labour’s 2007 budget… this was Key’s first test in the debating chamber speaking on an important economic issue…. Left-wing commentator Chris Trotter conceded on TV One that New Zealand was witnessing its next prime minister’ (p.141).
- ‘Waitangi Day 2008 was another such image even on which Key and National capitalized. Here Key surprised viewers and commentators with images of him appearing to be getting on well with Maori activists Tame Iti and Titewhai Harawira…. The 2008 images of Key smiling and holding hands with Harawira as she escorted him onto Te Tii Waitangi marae were at odds with the last media images of Clark with Harawira in 2002 when both looked like they were about to slap each other’ (p.142).
- ‘The first major leaders’ debate on TV One on 14 October 2008 was the image event that put the last nail in Labour’s coffin…. Key proved through both his non-verbal and verbal performance to be a match for Clark’ (p.149).
The politics of engagement
The Labour Party used the electioneering slogan of: ‘This one’s about trust’, and attempted ‘to chip away at Key… questioning his integrity’. But these attacks ‘barely dented National’s opinion poll standings, because this election was not actually about trustworthiness, but rather about which leader could engage better with ordinary voters’ (p.148). Robinson says that parties need ‘to be mindful of the need for their leaders to be seen to be engaging with ordinary New Zealanders, and to be doing so all the way through the electoral cycle’ (p.150). People are ‘looking for evidence of some sort of social relationship between a leader and the people to guide their leadership perceptions’ (p.143). A politician ‘who most convincingly and consistently appears in mediated images to engage in a credible social relationship with citizens will be perceived as popular and effective’ (p.145). In the years leading up the 2008 election, it was of course National that mastered this ability to be seen as engaging:
John Key used all the communication tools at his disposal to demonstrate his interest in engaging with voters. He utilized the internet: the National Party website, his personal website, video journals, Facebook, Flickr and YouTube; he produced a DVD; he utilized various print and television media; he got himself into women’s magazines and featured on popular culture television interview shows… Key was more determined and strategic in his approach than [Clark] was in 2007 and 2008 (p.145).
Clark by comparison had many virtues, but her commonly perceived arrogance and haughtiness probably did her in:
Clark had, since 1999, been considered by 80 to 90 per cent of respondents to be a capable leader, with 65 to 75 per cent agreeing that she had sound judgement. Where she was most lacking was in the area of being in touch with ordinary people. The perception that she was out of touch had grown from 23 per cent in November 1999 to 49 per cent in July/August 2008… Instead, it was John Key who was perceived to be more in touch with ordinary people…. the distance between Key and Clark in this area was significant (p.143).
It is, of course, notable that the leader of a party that traditionally prided itself as being for the common person (Labour) was seen as out of touch, whereas the traditional party of the Establishment (National) was now seen as being more down-to-earth and engaged. As Robinson puts it, ‘That a man with extraordinary wealth (for a New Zealander) could convince voters that he had the common touch demonstrates how influential mediated images of engagement are’ (p.150). Indeed. And I expect that this chapter - along with Robinson's other very good chapter on Political advertising in 2008 - will therefore be well read by political marketing experts and amateurs alike in the lead up to the 2011 election.
--------------------------- Further book details: Table of contents Preface - Stephen Levine and Nigel S. Roberts Overview of the
Election 2008: Key to victory
- Stephen Levine and Nigel S. Roberts 2008: The last
baby-boomer election - Colin James 2008: Leadership
during transition - Jon Johansson Political Party
Perspectives National - Steven
Joyce Labour - Grant
Robertson The Greens -
Catherine Delahunty ACT - John
Boscawen The Maori Party -
Rahui Katene The Progressives
- John Pagani United Future -
Rob Eaddy New Zealand First
- Damian Edwards New Zealand’s party
system: a multi-party mirage? - Jennifer Curtin and Raymond Miller Media Perspectives 2008: Images of
political leadership in the campaign - Claire Robinson 2008: Media coverage
of the election - Babak Bahador 2008: The
international media and the election - Aljoscha Kertesz 2008: The campaign in
cyberspace - Nicola Kean 2008: The YouTube
campaign - Rob Salmond The Results 2008: Voting
behaviour and the keys to victory - Stephen Levine and Nigel S. Roberts 2008: The impact of
the Electoral Finance Act - Bryce Edwards 2008: Opinion polls
and prediction markets in New Zealand - Shaun McGirr and Rob Salmond 2008: National’s
winning strategy - Therese Arseneau ---------------------- Publisher’s blurb: Key to Victory: The
New Zealand General Election of 2008 Levine, Stephen (ed) Published 2010 ISBN 9780864736130 Format format Category Politics Key to
Victory is the
story of the New Zealand general election of 2008, in which the experienced and
long-serving prime minister, Helen Clark, was ousted by a political newcomer –
National’s John Key. http://www.victoria.ac.nz/vup/2010titleinformation/keytovictory.aspx
Roberts, Nigel (ed)
Veteran academic commentators Colin James, Jon Johansson, and Therese Arseneau
offer perspectives on what New Zealanders were voting for when endorsing John
Key and National, and what they were voting against. Several MPs elected for
the first time in 2008 provide first-hand accounts of their parties’ campaigns,
including Labour’s Grant Robertson; the Greens’ Catherine Delahunty; the Maori
Party’s Rahui Katene; ACT’s John Boscawen; and the director of National’s
winning campaign, Steven Joyce, appointed to Cabinet following National’s
victory. New Zealand First’s doomed campaign is described by its campaign
director, Damian Edwards, while party strategists John Pagani and Rob Eaddy
provide accounts of the Progressive and United Future campaigns.
Key to Victory also investigates the important issues of the 2008
election, such as the impact of the Electoral Finance Act, and the likely
future of New Zealand’s remaining small parties.
During the 2008 campaign political parties started getting to grips with websites,
blogs, Facebook and YouTube, and ‘prediction markets’ competed with traditional
polls in forecasting the election results. The book describes these
developments and provides insights into the use of the media by John Key and
Helen Clark in their rival campaigns for leadership. International reaction to
the New Zealand campaign and the country’s vote for change is also highlighted.
Key to Victory includes a special DVD with excerpts from key campaign events
including the televised leaders’ debates, the leaders’ opening night campaign
addresses, parties’ TV ads and campaign billboards.
