If you want to understand modern politics, elections and economics, you’d do well to read Chris Worthington’s NZ Herald opinion piece, Transformation by policy a pipe dream. Ostensibly about this week’s Budget, Worthington explains – and advocates – the mindset of contemporary establishment thinking about how to govern the country and make beneficial changes. A senior economist with Gareth Morgan, Worthington channels the low-horizon, low-expectation, slow-moving, cautious politics of modern political parties and state bureaucrats, in arguing against the role of ideology, ideas, and big changes in politics. He says such revolutionary or ‘big bang’ approaches to changing society and economies are destined to failure, and what really works is non-ideological, incremental improvements based on evidence and trials. This centrist thinking is essentially the ruling ‘ideology’ of our time, and Worthington bemoans the continued existence of those who want politics to be political and elections to be about ‘a contest of ideas’. He needn’t worry too much about that happening any time soon.
In fact, in another excellent analysis of the National Government’s approach to the Budget, Chris Trotter writes in the Press (Key deals restrained Budget hand) that Worthington’s centrist and relatively pragmatic approach is working very well for National. Trotter says that National has ‘made moderation their watchword’ and ignored the advice of the Business Roundtable, Don Brash, and Paula Rebstock. The ‘Key-English version of moderate-conservative poker’ has led the Government down a popular path whereby voters are unlikely to want their playing cards assigned to them by Labour and the Greens. Trotter would surely argue that National is more in line with Worthington’s prescription for boring but successful politics. Similarly, Bryan Gould bemoans in the Herald today that National’s ‘idea of managing the economy is simply to wait and see what turns up’ – see: A Key Budget? Wake me when it’s over.
Continuing the theme, John Armstrong emphasizes that the Government is aiming for ‘balance’ – in particular, an approach ‘that balances the need to chop back Bill English's record $16 billion deficit with this being election year’ – see: A matter of balancing the sweet and sour. Labour, too, isn’t particular bold at the moment in its economic approach – despite the severe economic conditions – and Armstrong rightly points out that there should in fact be a lot of political attention on decline living standards: ‘The cost of living is shaping as the one election issue that might derail National. The reason it has yet to become a red-hot political issue is that Opposition parties - like the Government - do not have any ready solutions beyond subsidising such things as winter household power bills’.
Colin James says that Labour is instead going to rely on demonizing Don Brash and Act as its election strategy. He points out that Labour has a problem in that it has lost it’s working class base and soul, but is yet to reconstitute any real voting base to replace it. Colin James’ column, Brash, the budget and building a new strategy, is in today’s Otago Daily Times, which is sadly the only daily newspaper that will be publishing him – incredibly, Fairfax has dropped him from both the Dominion Post and the Press. This move should give more grist to MP Clare Curran, who has written on Red Alert about The trashing of politics and media. But there’s always the blogosphere, and today Denis Welch gave his evaluation on the state of it in his Nine-to-Noon media slot – listen here. And for those of you wanting some quality analysis of the Budget on Thursday, tune into TVNZ’s Budget Special at 2pm, where I’ll be giving it a go! [Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]
