Yesterday’s interim report from the Waitangi Tribunal won’t have surprised the Government, but it will have confirmed some tough choices ahead. As Vernon Small points out – the issue of ‘when’ is as crucial a factor as ‘what’ the final outcome is: ‘The Government's asset sales plans, for this year at least, are in trouble with a capital T. That's T for timing, T for tribunal, T for Treaty and T for title’ – see: Tribunal statement spells trouble for asset sale plans. Small thinks a Mighty River Power sale this year is looking ‘mighty unlikely’, especially if the Maori Council heads to court. Although John Key is leaving open the option of ploughing ahead with the sales before the full report in September (see: Danya Levy and Kate Chapman’s Asset sale may occur before Waitangi Tribunal report – Key), John Armstrong thinks that is not likely. Armstrong believes ‘to do so would look churlish, petty and overbearing. It would mean more friction with the Maori Party. It would run counter to National's tactic of downplaying any sense of concern about the question of water rights frustrating its privatisation plans’ – see: Tribunal's 'taihoa' squeezes timetable. It only puts off the day of reckoning, however. [Read more below]
There seem to be three broad paths for National:
1. Wait for the legal issues to be clarified, and then negotiate an inclusive resolution that allows the sales to proceed unencumbered
2. Work on a deal with the major Iwi that would undercut support for any Maori Council legal action and enable the Crown to argue in court that it is addressing the issues, or
3. Ignore an adverse finding, fight any legal challenges hard, and legislate over the top if they lose
Number 1 is probably the most responsible but is politically toxic to National as it would delay the sales well into 2013. Politics will win every time. Number 2 is almost certainly under way already and is probably the only way the Maori Party will emerge from it all with any credibility. The legal threat may be lessened, but the outcome would still be a huge gamble, and any sort of significant payout to Iwi would see National under fire from its own supporters. Number 3, despite all the soothing words and cautiously worded statements about consultation, is very much still in the frame. Politically it would be the most attractive option for National but a death blow for the Maori Party (no matter how they responded). Vernon Small can add ‘T for Tricky’ to his list.
King Gerry will be very pleased with the response of his subjects to the Christchurch Central Recovery Plan released yesterday – see: Lois Cairns’ Rebuild plan for Christchurch unveiled. There are a few minor details to sort – like the price tag and how it will be covered (see: Marta Steeman’s Christchurch council asset sales on the cards) – but the plan has received wide support, including from Labour and the Greens – see Newswire’s Vision for Christchurch welcomed. This is a real achievement, but one that makes the unhappiness of some of his subjects even more stark by comparison. While the beginning of the Central city re-birth was celebrated with a champagne lunch, residents living in some of the 28,000 Christchurch homes yet to be repaired were protesting outside – see TVNZ’s Champagne unveiling for new CBD does 'nothing' for homes.
The state has taken control in the central city and had to for the commercial future of Christchurch. It has effectively nationalised huge tracts of valuable land, and taken just 100 days to put forward a clear plan where the private sector has a clear but subordinate role in the key decisions. Although some red-zone residents have also benefitted from decisive state action, many more are still struggling. Nearly two years after the first earthquake they face years more waiting for repairs, or even just decisions, from their insurance companies. Comprehensive plans seem in short supply outside the CBD. Tessa Laing from the Social Justice Unit of the Canterbury Anglican Diocese writes in the Press about the fragmented housing strategy in the re-build and the lack of planning or investment in low-cost and social housing – see: Shock at lack of social planning. As with the banks and finance companies in the global financial crisis, there is bitter irony that those who are often loudest about reducing state involvement and collective responsibility are in fact first in line for the most government help, while those with the least resources are told the market will provide and that the government can’t interfere.
Other important or interesting political items today include:
Everyone, it seems, has an opinion on marriage equality that they need to share. National MPs just need to look to the party’s principles for guidance says Cameron Slater in The National Party and marriage equality. Ex-Labour minister John Tamihere has no doubts – see: Marriage is an institution between a man and a woman, period. Contrasting Christian views are debated today in the Dominion Post – see: Head to head: Same-sex marriage. But perhaps the most telling sign that opponents of the bill are truly up against it is the Southland Times editorial: We're ready for gay marriage. Beer ads on Gore’s main street with ‘She’s a hard road finding the right woman (or man, depending what you’re into)’ can’t be far away. It might even entice back some residents from Australia writes Stephen Rainbow in Change the marriage law and they will return.
Labour are on very weak ground with their proposal to exempt unions and NGO’s from the lobbying disclosure bill – see: Claire Trevett’s Labour call to exempt unions from lobby bill and the Waikato Times editorial What makes a lobbyist?.
David Parker responds to criticism of his likening Labour and National’s mining policy but spends most of the article burnishing his personal environmental credentials – see: I seek leave to make a personal explanation Meanwhile, Chris Trotter is less impressed, and says Labour forgets workers as it leans to the Right.
John Banks should not remain a minister according to today’s Dominion Post editorial – see John Banks makes an ass of the law: ‘Were ordinary citizens to operate to the same standard business and government could not function. No-one would be responsible for anything’.
Private members bills are a tool that should not only be left to the opposition writes David Farrar in National needs more members’ bills.
Warwick Isaacs (Press): Blueprint a mammoth task
Lois Cairns (Stuff): Rebuild plan for Christchurch unveiled
Kurt Bayer (Herald): Christchurch rebuild plan revealed
TVNZ: Breakfast - What place have Christchurch suburbs in rebuild? (4:28)
Kloe Palmer (TV3): Who will pay for the new Christchurch CBD?
Pattrick Smellie (NBR): Government opts for denser inner city living in Christchurch blueprint
Michael Wright (Stuff): Govt mum on Christchurch rebuild land costs
Marta Steeman (Stuff): Christchurch council asset sales on the cards
TV3: Firstline - Key talks about Christchurch's new CBD
TV3: Campbell Live - Gerry Brownlee cautiously optimistic
Newswire: Vision for Christchurch welcomed
Press: Editorial: A hopeful vision
Alan Wood (Stuff): Unit to attract private sector into rebuild
Gerry Brownlee (The Press): The end of the worst, beginning of the best
Tessa Laing (Press): Shock at lack of social planning
Newswire/TV3:Suburbs 'forgotten' in Christchurch rebuild plan
Tamlyn Stewart (Press): Central city plan shocks developers
Michael Wright (Press): Key backs covered stadium
Russell Brown (Hard News): Christchurch: Is "quite good" good enough?
Rebecca Macfie (Listener): Christchurch rebuild plan: a lot to like in the lolly scramble, but much to resolve
James Henderson (Standard): Gerrymania
Water rights and asset sales
Vernon Small (Dom Post): Tribunal statement spells trouble for asset sale plans
Danya Levy and Kate Chapman (Stuff): Asset sale may occur before Waitangi Tribunal report – Key
Claire Trevett (Herald): Govt warned over Tribunal response
John Armstrong (Herald): Tribunal's 'taihoa' squeezes timetable
Bob Jones (Herald): Father Time renders Treaty clauses redundant
Claire Trevett (Herald): Maori claim first blood in fight over asset sales
Claire Trevett and Kate Shuttleworth (Herald): Key will 'consider' Waitangi direction on asset sales
Kate Chapman (Stuff):Tribunal asks for halt to sale plan
Pattrick Smellie (NBR): Government huddles as tribunal urges asset sales delay
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): The Govt should wait for final Tribunal report
The Standard: Key’s rock and hard place
Robert Winter (Idle Thoughts): The Tribunal's Expected Spanner
Danyl Mclauchlan (Dim Post): And they’re also very musical
Duncan Garner (TV3):Opinion: Why Key backs same-sex marriage
Kate Chapman (Stuff): People not judged on sexuality: Key
Tova O’Brien (TV3): Key, Shearer agree on gay marriage
Isaac Davison (Herald): MP buoyed by Key's support for gay marriage bill
Warwick Rasmussen (Manawatu Standard): Editorial: Gay marriage a natural flow
Southland Times: Editorial: We're ready for gay marriage
Merv Duffy (Dom Post): Head to head: Same-sex marriage
Margaret Mayman (Dom Post): Head to head: Same-sex marriage
Stacey Kirk (Stuff): Anti gay marriage website shut down
Newswire: Gay marriage bill stirs heated debate
Danyl Mclauchlan (Dim Post): Sort of standing up for the Conservative Party on their opposition to gay marriage
Cameron Slater (Whaleoil): The National Party and marriage equality
John Tamihere (RadioLive):Marriage is an institution between a man and a woman, period
Stephen Rainbow (Herald): Change the marriage law and they will return
Lobbying and transparency
Claire Trevett (Herald): Labour call to exempt unions from lobby bill
Waikato Times: Editorial - What makes a lobbyist?
Nicola Shirlaw (Social Development): Lobbying as a legitimate activity?
Waikato Times: Editorial - Secrecy would set us back
Chris Trotter (Press): Labour forgets workers as it leans to the Right
David Parker (Red Alert): I seek leave to make a personal explanation
Robert Winter (Idle Thoughts): David Parker responds
Stuff: Live chat review: Labour leader David Shearer
Local govt electoral law
Colin James: Pool, track, field and ring: rating our politicos
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): National needs more members’ bills
Newswire: Tougher rules on oil explorers signalled
Gareth Morgan (Herald): Vast marine zone requires top governance
Willie Jackson (Auckland Now):Compulsory te reo
David Fisher (Herald): Worker wants port's apology for leaking details of wife's death
Kate Chapman and Tracy Watkins (Stuff): Thaw in New Zealand - Fiji Govt relations
Claire Trevett (Herald): NZ, Australia to restore Fiji diplomatic ties
Michael Cummings (Manawatu Standard): Editorial: Nats fluffed chance in Palmerston North
Felix Marwick (Newstalk ZB): Labour distancing itself from former staffer
Stuff: Today in politics: Tuesday, July 31