liberation: NZ Politics Daily: 27 July

The expectation that Labour ‘is heading for a bloodbath in November’ has just been cemented in the public’s mind according to the non-partisan Dim-Post blog commenting on todays Fairfax opinion poll. This is correct. Just as the recent poll that put Labour on 27% was an absolutely ‘catastrophe’ for Labour at a critical time, the latest poll that puts the party on 28% confirms the deadly narrative for Labour that it has no chance of winning the general election. Political scientists refer to this as the ‘bandwagon’ effect – voters are often inclined to decide on how to vote in accordance with what they perceive other people have chosen to do. Partly this is simply to be fashionable or popular. But it’s also to do with the fact that swing voters, especially, have a lot of uncertainly and lack of information about who to vote for and so they take their cue from what they believe the majority of the population have decided. And how can you be wrong in voting National when supposedly 56% of society give their stamp of approval to the Government, compared to only 28% for the main alternative? But the bandwagon effect isn’t the only phenomenon affecting such strategic voters; the ‘underdog effect’ can also be quite powerful, which often explains why the gap between the two main parties tends to close during the election campaign. Therefore, paradoxically, the Labour Party might now be best to sell itself as the ‘principled losers’ in the contest. We’ve already seen that Labour is inclined to do this when its leaders push lines about adopting a capital gains tax ‘because it’s the right thing to do’ even if it loses Labour votes. We’re likely to now hear more from Goff and co about Labour valuing principle over popularity, and about policies that are the best for the country rather than the best for short-term political gain. They’re after the sympathy vote.

In terms of today’s poll, the most important pieces of analysis to read are John Hartevelt’s Labour's calling, but no one's answering, Andrea Vance’s Voters undeterred by PM’s stumbles, David Farrar’s 17 weeks to go: what can Labour do?, and Vernon Small’s National supporters stay loyal to Key-fronted party. Unlike many polls, the Fairfax one is notable for its rich voting behaviour information – especially details of vote shifting between parties and also about coalition preferences of voters. On both these scores, one of the more interesting details is about Green voters. It seems the Green Party has lost nearly a third of its 2008 voter base – possibly the more leftwing voters. And a decent proportion of the party’s current voters would prefer that the party goes into a coalition with National – see: Voters reject Harawira hook-up. As Sue Bradford is quoted saying, ‘More and more they are becoming a mainstream middle ground party that is going after the blue green vote and more and more Green Party members and supporters feel comfortable with that’.

The other ongoing political debate of the day is around electoral deals, and Patrick Gower has written a great blog post, entitled Dirty electorate political deals, done dirt cheap. His main complaint about such deals is when ‘politicians do them but don't openly admit them to voters’. A Herald editorial (It's politics... but not as many want it) takes a different approach in its disapproval: ‘If there is anything new about the latest set of machinations, it is that little attempt has been made to disguise them’. Another editorial (Parties risk sullying MMP's reputation) makes an even more important point: ‘With MMP's future on the line in a referendum in this year's election, how the people feel about such machinations will be put to the test. It would be deeply ironic if a system that was supposed to end the cynicism of politicians met its own end because of it’. A closely related issue – the nexus between electoral deals and the 5% MMP threshold – is dealt with well in the No Right Turn blog post, In support of the "electorate lifeboat".

It’s worth noting the rise of the issue of poverty and child welfare in New Zealand onto the political agenda – which is dealt with in recent Herald articles about child poverty – see, for example, Simon Collins’ Our hungry kids: Huge leap in foodbank use, and Brian Rudman’ Hunger in land of milk and honey. Partly this all reflects – as I’ve argued previously – the resurgence of public-political interest in traditional left-right materialist issues of economics and inequality. But it also reflects the ongoing work of the Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG), which has been working tirelessly for a number of years to get these issues addressed. CPAG have also just released a useful report in this regard, Hunger for Learning, which you can download as a PDF here.

Finally, to mark the 25th anniversary of homosexual law reform, there are plenty of very good retrospective analyses of what happened back in 1986. In particular, check out Kimberly Rothwell’s 25 years of gay rights in New Zealand, Malcolm McKinnon's 25 years on – homosexual law reform in New Zealand, and for a more challenging account: Sean Kearns’ On the 25th anniversary of homosexual law reform: Gay liberation or crumbs from parliament?.[Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]

Below are the internet links to all the NZ politics material from the last 24 hours that are either informative, insightful, interesting or influential. This list and the links are taken from a fuller document, NZ Politics Daily, which is emailed out, Monday to Friday, to various researchers, academics, journalists, MPs and so forth. The document is purely for research purposes only, and if you would like to be on the subscription list, please email: bryce.edwards@otago.ac.nz

Fairfax poll

Tracy Watkins (Stuff): National Party could govern alone

NZPA: Goff shrugs off Labour's poll slump

Andrea Vance (Dom Post): Voters undeterred by PM’s stumbles

Vernon Small (Dom Post): National supporters stay loyal to Key-fronted party

Tracy Watkins (Dom Post): Voters seem to have taken vow with Key

Vernon Small (Dom Post): Goff steering Labour to knacker's yard

Felix Marwick (Newstalk ZB): Political Report for July 27

John Hartevelt (Stuff): Labour's calling, but no one's answering

David Farrar (Stuff): 17 weeks to go: what can Labour do?

Kate Chapman (Dom Post): A politician's worst nightmare

Danya Levy and Tracy Watkin (Stuff): Voters reject Harawira hook-up