The expectation that Labour ‘is heading for a bloodbath in November’ has just been cemented in the public’s mind according to the non-partisan Dim-Post blog commenting on todays Fairfax opinion poll. This is correct. Just as the recent poll that put Labour on 27% was an absolutely ‘catastrophe’ for Labour at a critical time, the latest poll that puts the party on 28% confirms the deadly narrative for Labour that it has no chance of winning the general election. Political scientists refer to this as the ‘bandwagon’ effect – voters are often inclined to decide on how to vote in accordance with what they perceive other people have chosen to do. Partly this is simply to be fashionable or popular. But it’s also to do with the fact that swing voters, especially, have a lot of uncertainly and lack of information about who to vote for and so they take their cue from what they believe the majority of the population have decided. And how can you be wrong in voting National when supposedly 56% of society give their stamp of approval to the Government, compared to only 28% for the main alternative? But the bandwagon effect isn’t the only phenomenon affecting such strategic voters; the ‘underdog effect’ can also be quite powerful, which often explains why the gap between the two main parties tends to close during the election campaign. Therefore, paradoxically, the Labour Party might now be best to sell itself as the ‘principled losers’ in the contest. We’ve already seen that Labour is inclined to do this when its leaders push lines about adopting a capital gains tax ‘because it’s the right thing to do’ even if it loses Labour votes. We’re likely to now hear more from Goff and co about Labour valuing principle over popularity, and about policies that are the best for the country rather than the best for short-term political gain. They’re after the sympathy vote.
In terms of today’s poll, the most important pieces of analysis to read are John Hartevelt’s Labour's calling, but no one's answering, Andrea Vance’s Voters undeterred by PM’s stumbles, David Farrar’s 17 weeks to go: what can Labour do?, and Vernon Small’s National supporters stay loyal to Key-fronted party. Unlike many polls, the Fairfax one is notable for its rich voting behaviour information – especially details of vote shifting between parties and also about coalition preferences of voters. On both these scores, one of the more interesting details is about Green voters. It seems the Green Party has lost nearly a third of its 2008 voter base – possibly the more leftwing voters. And a decent proportion of the party’s current voters would prefer that the party goes into a coalition with National – see: Voters reject Harawira hook-up. As Sue Bradford is quoted saying, ‘More and more they are becoming a mainstream middle ground party that is going after the blue green vote and more and more Green Party members and supporters feel comfortable with that’.
The other ongoing political debate of the day is around electoral deals, and Patrick Gower has written a great blog post, entitled Dirty electorate political deals, done dirt cheap. His main complaint about such deals is when ‘politicians do them but don't openly admit them to voters’. A Herald editorial (It's politics... but not as many want it) takes a different approach in its disapproval: ‘If there is anything new about the latest set of machinations, it is that little attempt has been made to disguise them’. Another editorial (Parties risk sullying MMP's reputation) makes an even more important point: ‘With MMP's future on the line in a referendum in this year's election, how the people feel about such machinations will be put to the test. It would be deeply ironic if a system that was supposed to end the cynicism of politicians met its own end because of it’. A closely related issue – the nexus between electoral deals and the 5% MMP threshold – is dealt with well in the No Right Turn blog post, In support of the "electorate lifeboat".
It’s worth noting the rise of the issue of poverty and child welfare in New Zealand onto the political agenda – which is dealt with in recent Herald articles about child poverty – see, for example, Simon Collins’ Our hungry kids: Huge leap in foodbank use, and Brian Rudman’ Hunger in land of milk and honey. Partly this all reflects – as I’ve argued previously – the resurgence of public-political interest in traditional left-right materialist issues of economics and inequality. But it also reflects the ongoing work of the Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG), which has been working tirelessly for a number of years to get these issues addressed. CPAG have also just released a useful report in this regard, Hunger for Learning, which you can download as a PDF here.
Finally, to mark the 25th anniversary of homosexual law reform, there are plenty of very good retrospective analyses of what happened back in 1986. In particular, check out Kimberly Rothwell’s 25 years of gay rights in New Zealand, Malcolm McKinnon's 25 years on – homosexual law reform in New Zealand, and for a more challenging account: Sean Kearns’ On the 25th anniversary of homosexual law reform: Gay liberation or crumbs from parliament?.[Continue reading below for a full list of the highlights of NZ Politics Daily]
Below are the internet links to all the NZ politics material from the last 24 hours that are either informative, insightful, interesting or influential. This list and the links are taken from a fuller document, NZ Politics Daily, which is emailed out, Monday to Friday, to various researchers, academics, journalists, MPs and so forth. The document is purely for research purposes only, and if you would like to be on the subscription list, please email: bryce.edwards@otago.ac.nz
Fairfax poll
Tracy Watkins (Stuff): National Party could govern alone
NZPA: Goff shrugs off Labour's poll slump
Andrea Vance (Dom Post): Voters undeterred by PM’s stumbles
Vernon Small (Dom Post): National supporters stay loyal to Key-fronted party
Tracy Watkins (Dom Post): Voters seem to have taken vow with Key
Vernon Small (Dom Post): Goff steering Labour to knacker's yard
Felix Marwick (Newstalk ZB): Political Report for July 27
John Hartevelt (Stuff): Labour's calling, but no one's answering
David Farrar (Stuff): 17 weeks to go: what can Labour do?
Kate Chapman (Dom Post): A politician's worst nightmare
Danya Levy and Tracy Watkin (Stuff): Voters reject Harawira hook-up
The Dim-Post: What is to be done?
Electoral deals
Patrick Gower (TV3): Dirty electorate political deals, done dirt cheap - blog
Patrick Gower (TV3): ACT doing Nats a favour in New Plymouth
Editorial (NZH): Editorial: It's politics... but not as many want it
Katie Bradford-Crozier (Newstalk ZB): Labour wants change to MMP
Papakura Courier Editorial: Parties risk sullying MMP's reputation
No Right Turn: In support of the "electorate lifeboat"
Poverty and child welfare in New Zealand
Kate Chapman (Stuff): Controversial child abuse prevention plan released
TVNZ: Govt seeks public opinion on plan to protect children
TVNZ: Child Welfare Green Paper launched today (5:25)
Kate Newton (Dom Post): Kiwis among the worst for rates of depression
Simon Collins (NZH): Our hungry kids: Huge leap in foodbank use
Brian Rudman (NZH): Hunger in land of milk and honey
No Right Turn: Child poverty: The core problem
No Right Turn: A partial solution
Rob Carr (Political Dumpground): Something We Need
TVNZ: Politician challenged to live on benefit
TV3: Dunne calling for subsidised power for elderly
Taxation
Rosemary McLennan (Upper Hutt Leader): Cunliffe sees big change ahead
Owen Hembry (NZH): More tax evaders nabbed, says IRD
Hamish Rutherforfd (Stuff): IRD plans crackdown on artificial loss schemes
Hamish Rutherford (Stuff): IRD targets 'cash jobs'
Paul McBeth (Scoop): IRD chasing McCarten’s Unite Support Services over taxes
25th Anniversary Homosexual Law Reform
Kimberley Rothwell (Dom Post): 25 years of gay rights in New Zealand
Kimberley Rothwell (Dom Post): Homosexual law reform fears 'have not come to pass'
Malcolm McKinnon (Te Ara: Signposts): 25 years on – homosexual law reform in New Zealand
RNZ: Ideas for 10 July 2011 - Homosexual Law Reform (audio)
Grant Robertson (Red Alert): It was 25 years ago today
Sean Kearns (Redline): On the 25th anniversary of homosexual law reform: Gay liberation or crumbs from parliament?
Jay Bennie (GayNZ): Bill Logan Pt.1: “It was a good ride!”
Jay Bennie (GayNZ): Bill Logan Pt2: The change in NZ culture
Craig Young (GayNZ): Repression’s Gargoyles
Other
TVNZ: Subsidised dentists 'wouldn't improve teeth'
Grant Roberston (Red Alert): I should’ve looked after me teeth
Antonio Bradley (Dom Post): Ambulance crews, patients ‘at risk’ from understaffing
Jane Kelsey (NZH): Pitfalls of a gold-standard trade deal
Fran O'Sullivan (NZH): Hit US where it hurts - in credit rating
Te Ururoa Flavell (Rotorua Daily Post): Time to say 'No More'
Jamie Morton (NZH): Maori MP: ‘Condemn’ suicide victims
Morgan Godfery (Maui St): Flavell on Suicide
Rob Carr (Political Dumpground): The Promoter Problem
Liam Hehir (Manuwatu Standard): No call for new curbs on media
Press Editorial: Pointless panel
Adam Bennett (NZH): Motorists hit harder for new transport projects
RadioLIVE: Govt road plan will hit NZers in the pocket – Greens
TVNZ: Greens slam 'unbalanced' transport budget (5:30)
Katie Bradford-Crozier (Newstalk ZB): Taxi measures "stupid"
Marc Greenhill (Press): Christchurch temp housing package 'botched'
Peter O’Connor (Dom Post): Narrow focus road to education failure
James Weir (Stuff): Rich 'morally responsible for helping others'
TVNZ: AMP Business: The Brief with Mai Chen (3:58)
Elizabeth Binning (NZH): Blair sells out after ticket prices slashed
Stacey Wood (Dom Post): Secret life of John Key's bodyguard
Dom Post: Today in Politics – Wednesday